Research On New Product Diffusion Simulation Based On Complex Network And Overconfidence

With the rapid development of modern information technology,online social media(such as We Chat,jitter,micro-blog,tiktok,etc.)are constantly updating rapidly,providing consumers with a platform for communication and communication.The ways of communication between consumers are also constantly updated,and in a variety of forms.At the same time,consumers are exposed to a huge amount of product information in life,and it is difficult to make rational judgment and consumption.Therefore,studying the diffusion law of new products in the consumer market and observing its diffusion effect will help enterprises develop well,which has good practical significance for the research of consumers,enterprises and markets.When new products spread in the market,consumers will be affected by environmental factors and their own factors.Therefore,this paper discusses the diffusion of new products by combining the complex online social networks and consumers’ irrational behavior(overconfidence).This paper describes the concept of consumer interaction process of new product diffusion through game theory,constructs and designs the model by using the method of multi-agent simulation,introduces the network effect into the model,and discusses the impact of global network effect and local network effect on new product diffusion.At the same time,the network effect intensity is used to reflect the difference between global and local network division,and its impact and role on the diffusion of new products are studied by changing the network effect intensity.In order to make the research more suitable for the actual product diffusion scenario,this paper relaxes the hypothesis that consumers will make rational decisions and believes that consumers will show irrational behavior of overconfidence in the diffusion of new products.Therefore,this paper introduces overconfidence into the new product diffusion model based on complex network,divides overconfidence into overestimation and overconfidence,and discusses the influence of different overconfidence parameters on new product diffusion.In addition,under different overconfidence scenarios,the influence of network structure and network effect intensity on diffusion is discussed,and the final influence of the coupling effect of complex network and overconfidence on the result of new product diffusion is studied.Based on multi-agent simulation,this paper adds complex network and overconfidence to experiment,and shows the micro individual interaction process of new product diffusion,which provides an effective reference for the combination of psychology and computer simulation.In addition,this paper can also effectively provide support for new product diffusion and decision-making research in other fields.