| Since the 18 th CPC National Congress,the CPC Central Committee has arranged and emphasized about disaster prevention and mitigation work on multiple occasions:“Efforts should be made to shift focus from post-disaster relief to pre-disaster prevention,from responding to a single type of disaster to comprehensive disaster reduction,and from reducing disaster losses to reducing disaster risks.”Guizhou Province,which is located in the hinterland of southwest China,as one of the less developed provinces seriously affected by meteorological disasters and secondary disasters,its social and economic development and people’s life and property safety have been restricted and threatened for a long time.However,with the overall increase and enhancement of extreme weather and climate events caused by global warming,the characteristics of multiple disasters and disaster chain are becoming increasingly prominent.Strengthening the prevention of meteorological disasters and reducing the impact of meteorological disasters have become a major problem urgently to be solved by governments at all levels and meteorological departments.This study takes Guizhou Province as the research division,based on 4R crisis management theory,collaborative governance theory and natural disaster risk assessment theory,including literature review,data collection,case analysis,index system method and GIS-based risk modeling and assessment method.By comprehensively combing and analyzing the characteristics of major meteorological disasters and the current early warning mechanism in Guizhou Province in recent 20 years,the impact of disaster and the degree of early warning mechanism construction in Guizhou Province can be clearly understood and mastered.By assessing the risk of major meteorological disasters in Guizhou Province and drawing risk zoning map,the risk of disaster causing factors,the sensitivity of disaster-bearing environment,the vulnerability of disaster bearing body,the ability to prevent and reduce disaster and the comprehensive risk assessment zoning of disaster categories in Guizhou Province were obtained,which can be directly applied to the current meteorological operations.By focusing on the analysis of meteorological disasters at home and abroad in recent years and the case review of Guizhou Province,combined with the current situation of early warning mechanism,the main problems existing in the meteorological disaster early warning mechanism of Guizhou Province were found in three aspects: monitoring,forecasting and warning,warning issuing and spreading,departmental linkage and emergency response.Such as blind spots in the observation system,lack of the accuracy and advance of forecast and warning,un-established in the impact forecast and risk early warning,insufficient for the application of risk survey result,insufficient construction of the forecaster team,insufficient attention of risk assessment,insufficient innovation of early-warning information release and dissemination,poor effect on popularization of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction,weak of departmental linkage,deficiency of social forces participation and so on.After analyzing the reasons respectively,from the perspective of risk assessment,the risk assessment element was taken as the support and auxiliary of the early warning mechanism,which is effectively integrated into the solution and optimization suggestions of the above three aspects of problems.Such as referring to risk assessment as filling the observation blind spot,establishing meteorological disaster risk assessment system,developing impact forecast and risk early warning business,establishing the application mechanism of risk survey results,innovative application of risk assessment in early warning information,establishing a long-term working mechanism for publicity and popular science,improving the joint early-warning mechanism with meteorological disaster warning information as the lead,accelerating the cultivation of relevant social organizations,standardizing mechanisms for the participation of social forces and so on.In short,the main problems existing in the current meteorological disaster early warning mechanism can be optimized and perfected from the perspective of risk assessment,which not only promotes the research and innovation of scientific and technological achievements,but also provides scientific and feasible decision-making ideas and basis for risk management such as early warning and emergency response. |
