Decomposition Of Carbon Emission Drivers And Peak Projections In Wuhan City Circle

China’s carbon dioxide emissions will be 12.1 billion tons in 2022,accounting for 33% of global carbon emissions.On 22 September 2020,at the 75 th session of the United Nations General Assembly,Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China will strive to achieve peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and net zero CO2 emissions by 2060.As the core region leading the development of Hubei Province and a key region in terms of energy consumption and carbon emissions,the Wuhan City Circle epitomises the contradiction between development and emission reduction,non-fossil energy use and energy scarcity in Central China.The paper therefore takes the Wuhan city circle as a study.The thesis takes the Wuhan city circle as the research object,and analyses the current situation of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the city circle on the basis of the formation process and energy endowment of Wuhan city circle;uses the LMDI model to analyse the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in Wuhan city circle;then uses the extended STIRPAT model and the scenario analysis method to construct three scenarios with nine development patterns to forecast carbon emissions in Wuhan city circle.The extended STIRPAT model and scenario analysis were then used to construct three scenarios with nine development models to forecast carbon emissions in Wuhan city circle,and to propose carbon emission reduction paths and strategies for Wuhan city circle.The main conclusions:(i)the total energy consumption of Wuhan city circle from 2011 to2020 shows a fluctuating trend and is on the rise during 2016-2020;the proportion of coal in the energy consumption structure gradually decreases and the proportion of natural gas keeps increasing;while the energy intensity shows a clear fluctuating decline.This indicates that the energy structure of Wuhan City Circle will continue to become more reasonable and the energy intensity will tend to decrease during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.(2)From 2011 to2020,the trends of total carbon emissions and total energy consumption in Wuhan City Circle tend to be consistent,with total carbon emissions showing a fluctuating trend,among which the total carbon emissions show a clear upward trend during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan period;carbon emissions intensity shows a fluctuating decline,with a relatively small increase from 2018 to 2020.a small increase.(iii)The population size and economic scale from 2011 to 2020 show a clear positive effect,while energy intensity shows a clear negative effect,and industrial structure also shows a clear negative effect in the later stages of development.The alternating positive and negative effects of carbon emission intensity mean that an increase in carbon emission intensity will promote the increase of carbon emission,while a decrease in intensity will inhibit it.(The results show that under the baseline carbon reduction scenario,the M3 carbon reduction model in Wuhan City Circle will peak in2025-2030;under the relative carbon reduction scenario,the M3 model will also peak in2025-2030;under the relative carbon reduction scenario,the M2 carbon reduction model will peak in 2030.Under the relative carbon reduction scenario,the Wuhan urban area will reach its peak in 2030-2030,and the M3 model will reach its peak in 2025-2030.For the M3 model under the three scenarios,the peaks under the baseline scenario are greater than those under the relative carbon reduction scenario and the absolute carbon reduction scenario.By reviewing the current institutional,technological,market and social changes in carbon-neutral countries,we provide a reference for the need for regional changes in the Wuhan city circle in the context of the "double carbon" scenario,and propose a path for the Wuhan city circle to achieve carbon emission reduction: i.By jointly building a cross-regional environmental protection mechanism,the Wuhan city circle can strengthen joint prevention and treatment of environmental pollution;ii.improve ecological compensation mechanisms at the provincial and regional levels,and explore various ecological compensation methods in the fields of forests,wetlands,watershed water resources and mineral resources,based on the principle that developers should protect and beneficiaries should compensate;iii.implement joint environmental regulation and enforcement.This mainly includes unifying enforcement standards,strictly controlling the total amount of major pollutants,conducting environmental impact assessments,listing and supervising and post-inspection systems for environmental protection,and focusing on environmental protection in order to mitigate the negative impact on the environment caused by the rapid economic development of the Wuhan City Circle in the early years at the same time.