Study On Impact Of Climate Change On Grain Total Factor Productivity In Heilongjiang Province

Stabilizing grain production is an important part of ensuring national food security,and the key to ensuring grain production security is to improve grain total factor productivity.Food production is a production process interwoven with natural reproduction and economic reproduction.Climate change has become an important factor affecting food production security.Climate factors such as temperature,precipitation and sunshine play an important role in grain output,which will inevitably affect all kinds of inputs and outputs in grain production,and thus have an important impact on the total factor productivity of grain.Heilongjiang Province,as the "ballast stone" of major grain-producing areas,has made important contributions to ensuring national food security,but it also faces risks and challenges brought by climate change.Therefore,to explore the impact of climate change on the total factor productivity of grain in Heilongjiang Province is of great significance for ensuring the safety of grain production in Heilongjiang Province and maintaining the national food security.Using input-output theory,total factor productivity theory and climate change economics theory,this study calculated grain total factor productivity based on DEA-Malmquist index analysis method and systematic GMM model,and empirically-analyzed the impact of climate change on grain total factor productivity in Heilongjiang Province.First of all,this paper defines the core concept,elaborates the theoretical basis and theoretical analysis;Secondly,the macro data of Heilongjiang Province was used to analyze the change of meteorological factors and the current situation of grain production,and the total factor productivity of grain in Heilongjiang Province was calculated scientifically.The characteristics of productivity were analyzed from the time dimension and regional individual dimension.Thirdly,the dynamic panel model was used to empirically test the impact of climate change on grain total factor productivity in Heilongjiang Province from the global and regional levels based on panel data of 12 cities in Heilongjiang Province,and finally the countermeasures were made.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)In the measurement of grain total factor productivity,the average value of total factor productivity index in Heilongjiang Province from2000 to 2020 was 1.018,showing an overall upward trend.Technological progress makes an important contribution to the improvement of grain total factor productivity in Heilongjiang Province,while technical efficiency plays an obstructive role.(2)Temperature rise is beneficial to the improvement of total grain factor productivity in Heilongjiang Province;The effect of sunshine hours on total factor productivity of grain in Heilongjiang was significantly negative.The influence of precipitation on grain total factor productivity in Heilongjiang Province did not pass the significance test.(3)The path that temperature affects the growth of grain total factor productivity is the path driven by technological progress.Rising temperature is conducive to promoting the development of technological progress and reducing the adverse impact brought by technical efficiency,thus promoting the growth of grain total factor productivity.(4)Except the central region,the annual mean temperature in Heilongjiang had a significant positive effect on the total factor productivity of grain.Annual precipitation had a significant positive effect on grain total factor productivity in eastern and western regions,but had no significant effect on the central region.Sunshine duration only has a positive effect on the eastern and central regions.Overall,climate change was more favorable to grain production in eastern Heilongjiang,followed by western Heilongjiang and then central Heilongjiang.(5)Based on the above conclusions,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: strengthening and improving the development level of agricultural science and technology,optimizing the scale of resource investment according to local conditions,improving the financial support policies to cope with climate change,comprehensively improving the level of meteorological prevention and early warning,and ensuring the sustainable use and conservation of natural resources.