Analysis On The Pattern And Vulnerability Of World Grain Trade From The Perspective Of Complex Networks

Grain is an important material for ensuring the basic livelihood of residents,and food security is the ballast of economic and social development.Since 2004,the "No.1 central document" has given important guidance to the work of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" for 20 consecutive years.In recent years,with the acceleration of China’s industrialization and urbanization process,China’s grain production and demand are in a "tight balance" state,and international grain trade has played an important role in regulating the balance of grain supply and demand.In 2012,China proposed a new national food security strategy of "based on domestic demand and moderate imports".In 2023,it was pointed out that China should fully leverage the role of international trade in agricultural products.Therefore,in the context of dual circulation both domestically and internationally,exploring the development pattern and fragility of world grain trade can help China make reasonable predictions about the international grain trade market,and thus more effectively ensure China’s food security.This article focuses on the three major staple foods(corn,rice,and wheat),and analyzes the production and consumption characteristics of world food based on data from 1990 to2020.The complex network research method is used to construct the world food trade network,exploring the evolution trend of the world food trade network from both the overall and local perspectives,Combining complex network theory and vulnerability theory to simulate the failure process of the world food trade network under random and deliberate attacks,and studying its vulnerability.The main content is as follows:(1)Based on statistical data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),analyzing the changes in world food production and consumption,it was found that the total world food production is on the rise,but there are differences between different regions.Asia,the Americas,and Europe are the main food producing regions in the world;The consumption scale of world food is constantly expanding,with corn growing the fastest and wheat growing the slowest.At the same time,there are also differences in the consumption structure of world food,with corn mainly used as feed,while rice and wheat are mainly used as rations.Overall,there is an imbalance in the production and consumption of world food.(2)Abstract the world food trade as a directed weighted network through complex network theory.Based on the relevant eigenvalues of complex networks,explore the pattern and trends of the world food trade network from multiple perspectives such as the overall scale evolution characteristics of the network,the local structure evolution characteristics of the network,and the changes in core nodes of the network.It is found that the trade connectivity between countries(regions)is increasing,and the connections between trade participants are becoming closer,However,the overall network is still dominated by core exporting countries.By analyzing the characteristics of China’s foreign grain trade,it is found that China’s position in international grain trade has gone through three stages of "volatility-significant improvement-steady progress".China has many partners in export trade,but its import concentration ratio is high.(3)By combining complex network theory and vulnerability theory,an undirected weighted world food trade network is constructed.By simulating the destruction process of the world food trade network under two modes of random attack and intentional attack,the changes in relevant eigenvalues are obtained and quantified.It is found that the world food trade network has good robustness in the face of random attacks and strong vulnerability in the face of intentional attacks.According to the failure process of the world food trade network under deliberate attacks,the nodes participating in the trade network are divided into three levels,with the nodes at the first level having the greatest impact on the stability of the network.In real life,it is necessary to increase attention to these nodes.