Ningxia Water Resources Security Assessment Based On Water-energy-food Linkage

As a strategic and fundamental resource that is essential for sustaining the socio-economic and ecological environment,water is crucial for human development and environmental protection.In the context of progressive water scarcity and rapid social development,water,energy and food are listed by the United Nations in 2030 as important targets for achieving sustainable development.How to maintain a balance between water energy and water food consumption under water constraints and the common safe and sustainable development of water,and to achieve coordination through system regulation has become an important issue.In this paper,we use the statistical data from 2015-2020 to analyse and evaluate the water-energy-food nexus and its development trend in Ningxia based on the combination of life cycle theory and grey prediction model,and determine the evaluation index of water security based on the water-energy-food nexus based on the key factors affecting the water-energy-food nexus.Using historical data from 2010 to 2020,the water demand for 2025,2030 and 2035 was predicted,and future development scenarios were taken into account.The water security status of Ningxia under the water-energy-grain nexus is assessed to lay the foundation for subsequent regulation studies.The following key conclusions were drawn from the study:(1)Ningxia’s water-centred water-energy-food nexusWater,energy and food are currently interdependent,constrained and closely linked by water resources in Ningxia.By calculating the energy consumption of water resources,the water consumption of energy and the water consumption of food,the closeness between the individual water-energy relationship and the water-grain relationship can be clearly derived.Water resources are involved in the production,transport and utilisation of energy,as well as in the cultivation,transport and processing and utilisation of food;on the other hand,energy is also involved in the extraction,purification,transport,utilisation and sewage treatment of water resources,by participating in the different water On the other hand,energy is also involved in the extraction,purification,transport,utilisation and treatment of water resources,supporting them by participating in the different directions of flow.For water resources,energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the utilisation sector,with 4.35 billion kWh,while energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the production sector,with a final consumption of 1.72 x 108 m3 of water for the whole energy sector,which is closely related to the exploitation and utilisation of energy and industrial water consumption,and food consumption is mainly concentrated in the irrigation sector during the production phase.Both food and energy cannot be developed without water resources,but with various water conservation measures and the vigorous development of clean energy,the growth rate of water demand will gradually decrease in the future,but water resources,as the biggest rigid constraint,always drive the evolution and development between the three systems.(2)Evaluation of water security in Ningxia based on the water-energy-grain nexusBy quantifying the water-energy-food nexus in Ningxia,the constraints on the water-energy nexus and the water-food nexus are:domestic water use,industrial water use,the proportion of groundwater use,Energy consumption for surface water abstraction,industrial water use,agricultural water use,the proportion of water-saving irrigated area in agriculture and the proportion of agricultural water use.Water use for domestic use gradually increases in Ningxia from 2025-2035,and the process of increasing water use in agriculture is mitigated with the improvement of water-saving technology.In terms of industrial water use,with the promotion of national water use control policies and the development of efficient water conservation,industrial water demand becomes smaller year by year,but the effect of the transformation of the relevant water use methods from crude and inefficient to economical and intensive is remarkable,and the industrial water demand of 10,000 yuan GDP is significantly reduced.An evaluation of Ningxia’s water resources security situation for 2025-2035 found that,according to the current water-energy-food nexus and its development trend,the security level of Ningxia’s water resources quantity for 2025-2035 is roughly between 3 and 5,between basic security and insecurity.The overall security of Ningxia’s water resources in the future will depend mainly on the water production model,annual precipitation and per capita domestic water consumption.The modal water yield is the primary factor affecting Ningxia’s future water resources security.Among them,the per capita domestic water consumption in the water-energy system is a human-controllable factor,and the corresponding water-saving mode can be carried out to regulate.