Impacts Of Climate Change On The Distribution Of Mammals On The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The global climate change will likely alter the natural distribution of extant species.The mammals,in particular,are highly sensitive to changing climate.Due to highaltitude topology,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)is more sensitive to climate change than other regions.The rate of temperature rise in QTP is faster than that observed in other regions across the world.Therefore,it is important to study how mammals’ distributions on the QTP will change in response to future climate warming.The MaxEnt model is one of the most widely used methods for predicting the distribution of current species with a small number of sampling sites.It also has high accuracy than the other models.In this study,we examined the distributions of 20 mammal species on the QTP based on three climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585)in 2050 s and2070s.We further assessed the vulnerabilities of these mammals and their migration patterns.All of the findings are extremely useful for fugure conservation of these mammals in the face of climate change.Major results and conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)Among the most important environmental variables affecting the distribution of mammal species on the QTP,climatic variables affect the distribution of more mammals than topographic variables.Climatic variables are the most important environmental variables for 13 species: white-lipped deer,musk deer,takin,argali,blue sheep,wild yak,Przewalski’s gazelle,Tibetan gazelle,woolly hare,Moupin pika,alpine weasel,snow leopard and Tibetan macaque.Topographic variables are the most important environmental variables for 7 species: red deer,Tibetan antelope,Tibetan wild ass,pika,Marmota himalayana,Tibetan fox and wolf.As the most important environmental variables,precipitation influences habitats of more mammal species than temperature,including white-lipped deer,musk deer,argali,wild yak,Tibetan gazelle,Moupin pika and snow leopard,and slope influences habitats of more mammal species than elevation,aspect and surface roughness,including Tibetan antelope,Tibetan wild ass,Tibetan fox and wolf.(2)In the background of future climate change,the suitable habitats of the 10 QTP mammal species will shrink,including 5 ungulate species: red deer,argali,Tibetan antelope,Przewalski’s gazelle and Tibetan gazelle,and 5 non-ungulate species: pika,Marmota himalayana,Tibetan fox,alpine weasel and Tibetan macaque.The suitable habitats of the remaining 10 mammal species will increase,including 6 ungulate species:white-lipped deer,musk deer,takin,blue sheep,wild yak and Tibetan wild ass,and 4non-ungulate species: wolly hare,Moupin pika,wolf and snow leopard.(3)Most ungulates are found in both increased habitats and vulnerable habitats,including white-lipped deer,red deer,musk deer,argali,blue sheep,Tibetan antelope,Tibetan gazelle,and Tibetan wild ass.Most non-ungulates contain only increased habitats or merely vulnerable habitats,including woolly hare,pika,Moupin pika,Marmota himalayana,Tibetan fox,alpine weasel and Tibetan macaque.Among the ungulates that contain both increased habitats and vulnerable habitats,most species have a larger area of increased habitats in 2070 s than in 2050 s in different climatic scenarios,including white-lipped deer,red deer,musk deer,argali,blue sheep and Tibetan gazelle.Increased habitats and vulnerable habitats of the studied species are all distributed around their current suitable habitats,showing a dispersion in all directions with the current suitable habitats as the center.The future increased habitats and vulnerable habitats are all located in the buffer zone between the current suitable habitat and unsuitable habitat.(4)The suitable habitats of 10 mammal species will shift to higher elevations,including red deer,musk deer,blue sheep,wild yak,Tibetan antelope,Tibetan wild ass,pika,wolf,snow leopard and Tibetan macaque.Most of the studied species will shift to higher latitudes,including white-lipped deer,red deer,musk deer,takin,blue sheep,wild yak,Tibetan antelope,Przewalski’s gazelle,woolly hare,pika,Moupin pika,Marmota himalayana,Tibetan fox,wolf and snow leopard.In the background of future climate change,most of the studied species will have moved more than 200 km from their distribution centres,including argali,wild yak,Tibetan antelope,Przewalski’s gazelle,Tibetan gazelle,Tibetan wild ass,Moupin pika,Marmota himalayana,Tibetan fox,alpine weasel and Tibetan macaque.The distribution centres of non-ungulates will migrate further than the distribution centres of ungulates.Protected areas are the cornerstone of current mammal conservation strategies,and they play an important role in mitigating the effects of extreme climate change on species.Protecting the habitats of species is essential for improving their ability to adapt to climate change.More thought should be given in the future to whether the current and future habitats of the QTP mammals are within protected areas,and whether they are effectively protected.In addition,protected area planning and other conservation measures should be adopted.In conclusion,this study will serve as a reference for future research on wildlife conservation on the QTP,as well as for species conservation and research in other regions.