Endangered Species Respond To Climate Change And Vulnerability Assessment In Qinling Mountains

Rapid climate change has been widely recognized as a major threat to biodiversity.Compelling evidence has already been presented of the effects of climate change on geographical distributions,population dynamics,phonological phase,and evolution,and these impacts are predicted to be exacerbated in the future.Projected change rates of climate are now getting faster than they were in the past.If global warming is not effectively controlled,a mean increase in global temperature of >2.0 °C could be the result(2.0 °C is defined as “dangerous”),and 15-35% of global species could be committed to extinction.Although the impact of climate change on the extent and rate of species extinction is still controversial,it is clear that the trend of global warming will accelerate the extinction risk for species.We used camera trap to survey the activity rhythm of endangered species and model to predict the effect of climate change on endangered species to solve the following questions: How species adjust their behavior to adapt to the change of surrounding environmental temperature,thus forming a kind of time activity rhythm;Assessing the vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change,identifying the location that are likely to be most strongly affected by climate change;Spatial shifts of the main endangered species under climate change in Qinling Mountains,and assessing the conservation effectiveness of current established nature reserves to face with future climate change.The main conclusions and results as bellows:(1)The frequencies of giant panda's activity captured by infrared camera in spring were significant higher than other seasons,the highest capture rates were in March.The daily activity peak of giant panda appear in the 14:00-20:00 pm,and became inactive in the 20:00-02:00,and the daily activity patters were higher than in the night.The average environmental temperature(8.28±7.61?)of daily activity peak for giant panda in spring was significant higher(Z=-2.48,P=0.013)than that of inactivity peak(3.97±6.91?);Giant panda main found in a mid-elevation peak at 1 400-2 000 m.The area of 50%k activity range in spring was 66.79 km2,and 39.17km2 in winter.(2)Two most years' activity peaks were observed for the golden takin,i.e.,April and November,and became inactive in November.Two activity peaks of golden takin were observed,i.e.,06:00-10:00 am and 16:00-18:00 pm,and the range of preferred environmental temperatures for the species was found between-2.08±5.00? to 17.43±4.76?.The survey results revealed that there were two significant vertical movements of golden takin in study area,one occurs in between spring and summer(from April to June),another happens between autumn and winter(from October to December),the species can be found in the elevation ranges of 1 055 m to 2 927 m,the average elevation were 1 977.31±353.90 m.We also found variation of seasonal activity range,the largest activity range of the species found in winter(50%K,151.92km2),and the minimum activity range found in summer(50%K,39.17km2).(3)We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.The results of modeling included the following findings: the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km2 from climate change by the 2050s;the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period;the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species,and 59.23% of future suitable habitat;current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu,Taibai and Yangxian counties(with a total area of 987km2)was predicted to be vulnerable.Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs.We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda,including establishing and adjusting reserves,establishing habitat corridors,improving adaptive capacity to climate change,and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.(4)Climate change will decrease the suitable habitat area of main endangered species by 2050 s,and the golden monkey will lost more than 51.22% of current suitable habitat.The area of current suitable habitat of endangered species(?3 species)were 4 662km2,accounting for 7.89% of the Qingling Mountains;and the area of 2050s' suitable habitat were only 2 453km2,accounting for 4.15% of the whole study area,decreased more than 47.38%.Climate change will increase the risk of suitable habitat along the peripheral areas of Qinling Mountains range.Gap analysis showed that the network of nature reserves only protect 48.58% of current endangered species suitable habitat,and 52.54% of 2050s' suitable habitat.In order to protect endangered species and their habitat more effectively,based on gap analysis results,the suitable habitat of endangered species in G1-G5 regions are largely unprotected,leaving significant gaps in the conservation network.Therefore,new reserves need to consider to establish in these regions to improve the connectivity of habitat.