Simulation And Prediction Of Suitable Habitats For Rare Animals Under The Background Of Climate Change

At present,global life forms are facing multiple threats from climate change,and many species have to adapt to global warming and changes in precipitation patterns by changing their habitats.Elliot's Pheasant(Syrmaticus ellioti)is a rare bird species unique to China and is of great ecological significance,with only 10,000 left.Exploring its suitable habitat distribution area and future trend,assessing the direction and degree of impact of climate change,and exploring the formulation of targeted conservation strategies to help it adapt to climate change have considerable research value in the field of biodiversity conservation.In this paper,292 Elliot's Pheasant distribution points and climate,topography,vegetation,water sources,human interference and other multi-source environmental data sets are collected and screened.Using the MaxEnt model and GIS spatial analysis method,the quantitative response relationship between Elliot's Pheasant and the geographic environment is constructed to simulate the suitable habitat of Elliot's Pheasant in ten provinces in southern China.Simultaneously,multi-model collection(including three climate models BC,MC and MP)method is used to predict the suitable habitat of Elliot's Pheasant in different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios(Rcp2.6,Rcp4.5,Rcp8.5)in 2050 and 2070.The main results are as follows:(1)The simulation results show that Elliot's Pheasant has a preference for forests,shrubs,and grasslands with mild winters,cool summers,abundant precipitation,low altitude,proximity to water sources,and little human interference.The present suitable habitat area of Elliot's Pheasant is 271238 km~2,accounting for16.62%of the study area,distributed in the mountainous areas of the provinces with a pattern of“three vertical,one horizontal and one planar areas”,among which the area of high fitness areas is 57317 km~2,accounting for 3.51%of the study area,mainly distributed at the junction of Zhejiang,Jiangxi and Anhui,Wuyi Mountains,Mulianjiu Mountains,Luoxiao Mountains and Nanling and the area of medium fitness areas is 213921 km~2,accounting for 13.11%of the study area,mostly surrounding high fitness areas to form buffer zones.(2)The prediction results of the multi-model collection show that the suitable habitat area of Elliot's Pheasant will be reduced to 10.67%of the study area in 2070,and the proportion of high fitness areas in the suitable habitat area will be reduced to6.29%.The degree of fragmentation in suitable habitats and high fitness areas both increased,while the degree of aggregation and connectivity decreased.The geometric center of the suitable habitat will move from Xinyu,Jiangxi to Yichun in the northeast.22.88%of current suitable habitats are not easily threatened by climate change,and14.11%of current suitable habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change in the future.(3)The comparison results of different climate models and scenarios show that the three climate models(BC,MC and MP)can predict the suitable habitat of Elliot's Pheasant in the future,but there are some differences in the prediction results among which the MP model is the most suitable.Under the three emission scenarios of Rcp2.6,Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5,the change trend of the suitable habitat area of Elliot's Pheasant is the same,but the range of change is different.The Rcp4.5 scenario is the most favorable for Elliot's Pheasant,while the Rcp8.5 scenario is the most stressful.