| Urban and rural areas are always an inseparable integration,it is clearly pointed out in the 14 th Five-Year Plan that the new development concept is being implemented in depth,the policies of new urbanization and rural revitalization are being vigorously promoted,and the urban-rural regional development pattern is being improved.In the other hand,promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas cannot be detached from the real situation,especially in the Northwestern region,which should focus on the local natural resource endowment,history and cultural traditions,and also follow the general laws of national development.Therefore,in view of the actual situation of urban and rural development in northwest China,this article mainly discusses the following four issues: the current situation of urban and rural development,the urban-rural coupling development mechanism,the influencing factors of development and how to develop in the future.First of all,based on the survey data of urban and rural development in northwest China,this article analyses the current situation of urban-rural coupling development in this region.The study found that there is a serious imbalance between urban and rural,the living standard of urban residents is generally higher than rural residents.The plight of farmers has not been fundamentally solved and the risk of returning to poverty still exists.At the same time,the employment rate in towns is low,which will affect the talents returning to their hometown to build the west.Secondly,taking rural revitalization and new urbanization as the starting point,we build the index system of urban-rural integration development.The weight of each index is measured by Entropy Weight Method(EWM),the evolution characteristics of the coupling degree are measured by Markov chain with time dimension and space dimension.The study found that the degree of urban-rural coupling in northwest China is more consistent,and the development gap is more narrower.In addition,there is a trend of "club convergence" in the urban-rural coupling development and regions are closely linked with each other.Then,we improve the Principal Component Analysis model(PCA)embedding minimum covariance determinant(MCD),to explore the influencing factors of urban-rural coupling development.Among them,geographical location,climate and environment,economic conditions,technological innovation level and policy system will have a significant impact on urban-rural coupling development.In addition,the area of forest land and grassland,the amount of fertilizer used,Engel’s coefficient,the proportion of urban and rural residents’ income and the proportion of urban and rural residents’ consumption have a negative impact on the urban-rural coupling development.Finally,we use system dynamics to create a dual system model of "rural revitalization-new urbanization",introducing data for policy simulation which can explore the possible results of urban-rural coupling development in Northwest China.Through data simulation,it is concluded that coordinated development is the best solution. |
