Spatio-temporal Pattern Analysis Of The Metabolic Life Cycle Of Urban Minerals

With the rapid advancement of China ’s social and economic modernization,the level of urban construction and household consumption has gradually increased,and the macro demand and production volume of metal resources such as iron,copper and aluminum have continued to increase.At present,the production of metal resources is expanding blindly,which can easily lead to the structural contradiction of metal overcapacity,resulting in serious waste of resources and environmental pollution,and it is difficult to meet the strategic needs of the country for the development of green and low-carbon economy in the new era.In the process of urbanization development,a large number of recyclable metal resources are contained in the waste products such as automobiles,electronic devices,communication equipment and so on.Through continuous enrichment,it has become a new type of ’urban mineral’ with considerable scale.The efficient recovery and development and utilization of urban mineral provides a key opportunity to effectively alleviate the crisis of mineral resources and build a green circular economy system.However,due to the lack of systematic scientific cognition of the whole life cycle metabolic process of urban mineral resource production → use → scrap → recycling,and the accurate grasp of its future evolution trend,the existing urban mineral recycling system has typical problems such as unbalanced supply and demand of base,narrow spatial coverage and low resource recycling efficiency,which is not conducive to the fine formulation and adaptive adjustment of urban mineral resource recycling strategy.Therefore,this paper takes iron and steel as the main research object,constructs a quantitative estimation model of the whole life cycle metabolism of urban mineral resources from the perspective of system dynamics,accurately reveals the spatial and temporal differentiation pattern and potential driving mechanism of urban mineral resources,and provides scientific basis for efficient recycling of urban mineral resources.The main research contents include:(1)Based on the idea of system dynamics modeling,we construct a quantitative calculation model of the metabolic process of the entire life cycle of steel resources in urban minerals from the perspective of material flow and material conservation,and comprehensively and accurately invert the evolution trend of steel resources in urban minerals at different spatial scales such as national and provincial levels.(2)According to the spatial multi-scale distribution information of steel resources in the whole life cycle of urban minerals,the potential driving factors affecting the metabolic process of iron and steel resources are adaptively extracted by using the geographic detector technology,and the relationship between the multiple driving factors and the iron and steel metabolic quantity is quantitatively analyzed.The quantitative estimation of the whole life cycle metabolic process of urban minerals at the municipal scale is realized through spatial downscaling,and then the spatial autocorrelation analysis method is used to excavate and reveal the spatial and temporal differentiation pattern of the metabolic distribution,metabolic transformation process and metabolic driving effect of urban minerals iron and steel resources at the municipal scale.(3)Based on the urban mineral steel resources metabolism and other urban mineral resources integration of urban mineral resources big data set,we use network technology to establish urban mineral resources big data aggregation,storage management,analysis and mining,visualization and information service platform,to provide information services and technical solutions for the government and industry.Taking steel as an example,this paper proposes an inversion method of the metabolic process of the whole life cycle of urban minerals based on system dynamics modeling,introduces the material transformation constraint of the metabolic process,comprehensively and finely restores the whole process of metabolic transformation of urban minerals resources,solves the problem of incomplete monitoring of urban minerals reserves changes by means of industry survey statistics,and realizes interpretable prediction of the future evolution of urban minerals resources,which can provide credible decision-making basis for the construction of recycling system from the perspective of regional synergy.