Study On The Measure And Influencing Factors Of Chinese Provincial Residents’ Consumption Upgrading

At the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee,it was proposed to "accelerate the construction of a new development pattern in which the domestic cycle is the main body and the domestic and international cycles are mutually reinforcing".It is an inevitable trend to unblock the domestic cycle system and drive domestic demand.Consumption upgrading,as the only way to develop domestic demand and boost consumption,has a direct impact on the success of strategic transformation.However,the academic community has not reached a consensus on the connotation,measurement,influencing factors and development path of consumption upgrading.Based on this,this paper defines the connotation of consumption upgrading in combination with the background of The Times,constructs a comprehensive evaluation system of provincial residents’ consumption upgrading,and uses the entropy method to measure and analyze the level of consumption upgrading in each province.Based on the spatial correlation analysis,this paper analyzes the spatial agglomeration of the consumption upgrading level in each province,uses the spatial econometric model to analyze the influence degree and spatial effect of each factor on the consumption upgrading level,and finally puts forward the policy suggestions to promote the consumption upgrading level of provincial residents.This paper takes Chinese provinces as the research object and selects panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2010 to 2020.Firstly,it clearly defines the connotation,internal composition,main content and characteristics of consumption upgrading.Secondly,combined with the contents of the report of the19 th CPC National Congress,the 14 th Five-Year Plan and the government work report,the index system of provincial residents’ consumption upgrading was constructed from four aspects: consumption scale,consumption structure,consumption pattern and consumption environment.The entropy method was used to measure the level of residents’ consumption upgrading in each province,and the development of the overall level of consumption upgrading and the four sub-levels of consumption upgrading was analyzed.The global and local autocorrelation tests were carried out to understand the spatial agglomeration of consumption upgrading level in provinces.Finally,based on the panel data of each province from 2010 to 2020,the spatial Dubin model is used to analyze the impact of urban-rural income gap,market opening degree,aging population,housing price level and other factors on consumption upgrading.The empirical study shows that:(1)During the study period,the consumption upgrading level of all provinces showed an upward trend on the whole,and a few provinces had a decline in index value,but the overall trend was continuously improving.(2)The eastern provinces lead the country in consumption upgrading by virtue of their advantageous geographical location and resource endowment,while the central provinces take the lead,far ahead of the western and northeast regions.(3)During ten years,the consumption upgrading level of 31 provinces and cities presents strong spatial correlation,and the consumption upgrading level of different provinces and cities will affect each other.(4)The positive spatial correlation of the consumption upgrading level of provincial residents is mainly manifested by low level of spatial constraint and locking.Although there are high level of linkage development mode,it is mainly concentrated in the eastern region,and the number is small.(5)There is a positive spillover effect on the consumption upgrading level of provincial residents.(6)Factors such as urban-rural income gap,aging population and housing price all have significant impacts on consumption upgrading.Among them,urban-rural income gap,aging population,housing price and unemployment rate have inhibitory effects on consumption upgrading,while the rest have positive promoting effects.