Spatial Econometric Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Divorce Rate In China

Since 2004,China's divorce rate has been on the rise for 16 consecutive years.This situation has not only aroused the attention of all walks of life,but also the attention of the state.Therefore,in the newly promulgated Civil Code,the first code since the founding of the People's Republic of China,significant changes have been made to the "divorce system".In order to prevent rash divorce,a 30 day cooling off period has been added.This paper uses the panel data of 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2004 to 2019 to explore and analyze the reasons for the rising divorce rate,and establishes a spatial econometric model to test the impact of various factors on the divorce rate.First of all,this paper analyzes the current situation of divorce rate in China,and uses the spatial weight matrix of Queen adjacent distance to reflect the interaction between different provinces.By drawing the evolution of the spatial and temporal pattern of each province in the past 16 years,calculating the global Moran index and drawing the Moran scatter map,this paper analyzes whether there is spatial dependence of divorce rate in space,and finds that there is spatial dependence of divorce rate in China The divorce rate has a significant spatial positive correlation.Therefore,in the study of the influencing factors of divorce rate,this paper establishes a spatial econometric model.Secondly,this paper divides the influencing factors of high divorce rate in China into two aspects: family environment factors and social environment factors.Family environment factors include average family size,total social dependency ratio,unemployment,birth rate,illiteracy rate and average years of education.Social environment factors include housing price,economic level and Internet popularization There are five factors: urbanization rate,urbanization rate and sex ratio.First of all,we test the spatial effects of the two models.Secondly,we use the Hausman test to determine whether to use the fixed effect model or the random effect model.Because the results of Hausman test can't reject the original hypothesis,we choose to add the random effect when we build the model.Finally,the spatial auto-regressive model(SAR),spatial error model(SEM)and spatial Dubin model(SDM)are established respectively for comparative analysis.According to the estimation results of the three models,it is found that the spatial Dubin model is the most significant in the case of spatial fixed effect,and the fitting effect is the best.Therefore,this paper selects the spatial Dubin panel model with fixed effect as the final result.It is found that the divorce rate of each province in China has obvious agglomeration effect,and it is concluded that housing price,per capita GDP,Internet penetration rate and gender ratio all promote the rising of divorce rate in social environment factors;in family environment factors,average years of education and unemployment rate promote the divorce rate,while total social support ratio inhibits it.Birth rate,average household size,illiteracy rate and urbanization rate have no significant impact on the divorce rate.Finally,based on the analysis,this paper gives some suggestions to improve the stability of marriage and reduce the divorce rate in China.