Research On Measurement And Driving Factors Of Rural Revitalization Level In Northwest China

Northwest China is one of the key areas push forward all-round rural vitalization.To do a good job in the rural revitalization of Northwest China is a necessary strategic measure to effectively promote Chinese-style modernization and achieve common prosperity for all the people.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to closely follow the development theme of The Times and adhere to the problem-oriented approach to measure the level and driving factors of rural revitalization in Northwest China for the smooth transition of the work focus of"agriculture,rural areas",the construction of a new pattern of large-scale western development in the new era,and the realization of high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas.First of all,on the basis of integrating domestic and foreign research achievements,the thesis reviews Marx and Engels’theory of rural development,urban-rural integration development and agricultural and rural modernization,summarizes the rural development thoughts of past leaders and the rural development experience of developed countries,and reviews and analyzes the rural development process and current situation in Northwest China.Secondly,the evaluation index system of rural revitalization level in Northwest China is constituted by setting up target layer,criterion layer,21 first-level indicators and 73 second-level indicators from six dimensions such as industrial prosperity.The weight and time weight₆)of all levels of indicators are determined by using the layer-by-layer vertical and horizontal splitting method and"entropy"nonlinear programming method.A TOWA-GA hybrid operator model based on quadratic weighting was constructed to conduct a dynamic and comprehensive evaluation of the rural revitalization level in Northwest China from 2010 to 2021.Then,the machine learning method is applied to the research on the driving factors of rural revitalization.Taking the evaluation value of rural revitalization level as the response variable,13indicators such as regional economic development level were selected as predictive factors,and the enhanced regression tree model based on integrated learning was introduced to measure the driving factors and relative impact of rural revitalization level in northwest China from the perspective of temporal heterogeneity.The empirical research results show that:（1）The development of the six sub-systems within the criteria layer is not balanced,and the ranking of each province is uneven,and there is a gap in each evaluation value.The subsystem of prosperous industry and prosperous life shows a steady rising trend as a whole.The subsystems of ecological livable and rural civilization showed an increasing trend of fluctuation,with a large fluctuation range in 2019 and 2020.The effective subsystem of governance fluctuates greatly and the overall situation is inferior to other subsystems.（2）The level of rural revitalization on the whole showed a significant upward trend.The sequence from high to low is:Ningxia（1.2540）,Xinjiang（1.1604）,Shaanxi（1.1220）,Gansu（0.9781）,Qinghai（0.9281）.The level of rural revitalization tended to be stable before 2016,and then showed a significant upward trend.（3）The driving factors of rural vitalization showed time heterogeneity.From 2010 to 2015,the level of agricultural economy,agricultural fixed capital stock and rural financial development were the main factors affecting the rural revitalization and development in Northwest China.From 2016 to 2021,the urban-rural income gap,the level of regional economic development,the level of agricultural economy,and the level of infrastructure are more likely to drive rural revitalization and development.From 2010 to 2021,regional economic development level,advanced industrial structure,food security and agricultural economic level were the top four driving factors.（4）Different driving factors show different threshold effect,threshold characteristics and diminishing marginal effect.The regional economic development level,agricultural economic level,food security,agricultural fixed capital stock and market development drive have a significant positive effect on the rural revitalization level,which has a threshold effect,and gradually stabilize after exceeding their respective thresholds.When the industrial structure is higher than a certain level,it plays a promoting role and has the threshold characteristics.When the income gap between urban and rural areas is 2.4～2.8,it can promote rural revitalization.When it is larger than 2.8,it has inhibitory effect.Finally,based on the above main research conclusions,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of promoting agricultural modernization as a whole,accelerating the cultivation of new driving forces for agricultural and rural development,modernization of rural governance system and coordinated development of regional economy.