| Since the 21 st century,the continuous warming of the climate and various human activities have gradually affected the natural hydrological cycle.At the same time,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become more obvious,which have become key elements controlling the sustainable development of society and economy.Therefore,through the analysis of regional runoff from climate change and human activities,this thesis determines the optimal allocation plan of regional water resources,analyzes the relationship between regional water resources supply and demand,and ensures regional water resources security.This thesis takes the watershed and water supply area where Yuefeng Canal is located in Handan City as the research area,through the analysis of the evolution law of hydrometeorological factors,and the analysis method of the cumulative slope change rate,to analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on the water inflow in the area.Apply the improved butterfly optimization algorithm to the regional water resources optimal allocation model,analyze the contradictions of the allocation schemes in wet years,normal water years,dry years,and extremely dry years,and propose more reasonable water resources allocation results and safeguard measures to achieve efficient allocation water resources and sustainable development goals.The main results of the thesis contain:(1)From 1960 to 2020,the average temperature in the Zhanghe River Basin above Guantai showed a significant increase trend,the annual precipitation showed a non-significant decrease trend,and the annual runoff showed a significant decrease trend.The year of sudden change was 1977;through correlation analysis,the main factors affecting runoff The meteorological factor is precipitation and has a significant positive correlation,while the effect of temperature is weak and has no significant negative correlation with runoff.(2)Compared with the baseline period(1960-1978),the main factor of runoff reduction in the human activity period was human activities,followed by climate change.(3)Using the correlation relationship between precipitation and runoff during the human activity period,the runoff series in the reference period was revised to form a runoff series in the full analysis period under the current conditions,so as to meet the consistency;Runoff,analyze the diverted water volume of Yuefeng Canal.(4)The configuration scheme obtained by the improved butterfly optimization algorithm shows that the water demand of industry,ecology and main canal agriculture can be met in both wet years and flat water years,and there are different degrees of water shortage in agriculture in other sub-districts,with water shortages of 34.7252 million cubic meters and 63,917,400 cubic meters;different water users in each sub-district in dry years and extremely dry years have different degrees of water shortage.,two-point stem and five-point stem.(5)According to the shortage of water in Yuefeng Canal,the protection measures of water saving priority are put forward.The results show that the water diversion in dry years and extremely dry years still cannot meet the needs of industrial water use.Ensure the safety of water resources in the study area. |
