| Water resources are vital for human survival,socio-economic development and ecological protection.With the acceleration of urbanization,rapid population growth,and continuous improvement of economic levels,the contradiction between water supply and demand in most areas has become increasingly acute.This limitation hinders the sustainable development of the regional economy and society.Therefore,rational planning and utilization of water resources are of significant importance.Comprehensive water resource management under changing climate conditions involves the incorporation of water resources in the cycle system into planning.Among them,streamflow is an important part of the water resource cycle system.To simulate and predict regional streamflow,combined with water quantity data to obtain available water quantity,and then allocate available water reasonably based on the analysis of local economic development needs and the relationship between water resources supply and demand,is an important part of comprehensive water resource management.Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign uncertain water resource prediction and water resource optimization allocation theory and methods,this study,with the sustainable use of water resources as the guiding ideology,establishes a comprehensive management model system for predicting and optimizing the allocation of water resources under climate change,named CDSF-IMOM.The proposed CDSF-IMOM,by integrating deep learning streamflow prediction and multi-objective optimization into a general model framework,improves the existing methods of comprehensive water resources management under climate change.The study takes the source area of the Yellow River as an example to demonstrate the practical applicability of the model system.The main research contents and conclusions include:(1)The economic,social,geographical conditions of the study area as well as the water resources situation were analyzed.2025 was selected as the year of water resource management planning for research.The water demand,economic data and other local water resources of each water-use sector in the planning year were analyzed and calculated.(2)The maximum information coefficient method was used to screen the influencing factors of streamflow such as climate information,soil moisture,and lagged streamflow data,and initially screened out factors that are highly related to streamflow.On this basis,the principal component analysis(PCA)was used to remove the original multicollinearity between various factors and extract principal components.The integrated principal components were input into the data-driven prediction model based on the long short-term memory neural network to achieve the prediction of monthly scale streamflow.The performance metrics of the model were calculated with NSE=0.771 and MAE=0.054,indicating that the proposed CDSF model has good prediction performance.(3)The forecasted streamflow is then incorporated into a multi-objective water resources optimization management model,which involves two conflicting management objectives:maximizing the total system benefits and maximizing the average satisfaction degree of multiple water-use sectors.The model was solved by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)method,and generated the optimal water allocation scheme to support integrated water resources management.In addition,multiple-scenario analyses were established for different water availability to verify the applicability of the model.The results show that the maximum overall satisfaction of multiple water-using departments with the allocation results exceeds 0.9775.The water allocation scheme was consistent with the local economic development and water supply and demand,with favorable applicability.In general,CDSF-IMOM incorporated climate-based dynamic streamflow forecasting and multi-objective optimal water allocation into a comprehensive model system.It could help managers to accurately weigh and grasp the situation of regional water resources utilization and water environment changes,and seek scientific and reasonable water resources allocation and management decisions on this basis,providing some guidance for the coordination of waterresources and sustainable development of economy and society. |
