The Impact Of Extreme Temperature On Rural Poverty Vulnerability

China is a vast country with complex and diverse terrain and climate types.Extreme weather disasters are increasingly frequent,and derivative problems are increasingly prominent,which may affect economic security to a certain extent.In 2020,China’s fight against poverty has won a comprehensive victory,and the absolute poverty under the current standard no longer exists,but it is followed by another more hidden phenomenon of poverty.Due to various factors,the problem of returning to poverty may occur again in the future,that is to say,the vulnerability of poverty remains high,and the increase of this phenomenon will inevitably affect the actual effect of China’s anti-poverty strategy and increase the cost of poverty reduction,which is more than worth the loss.Therefore,after the problem of absolute poverty has been solved,the study of poverty vulnerability came into being.This paper uses the high and low temperature data of 198 counties and districts collected by the CNDRS database for 365 days in 2018 and the income and expenditure information of China in 2018 in the sixth round of nationwide survey,collects the corresponding samples of the China Household Income Survey(CHIPS),and uses the expected poverty to define the vulnerability to poverty(VEP),which is $1,$1.5,$2,30% and 50% of the median per capita disposable income in rural areas are used to define and measure the vulnerability of poverty.Quantile regression,threshold model and other model construction methods are used to study the impact of extreme temperature on the vulnerability of poverty of rural households in China.The results show that the vulnerability to poverty increases significantly with the decrease of the coldest day temperature and the increase of the maximum daily range,while the vulnerability to poverty decreases significantly with the increase of the temperature on the warmest day.At the same time,the impact of extreme temperature varies among groups with different poverty levels.Groups close to the poverty line and at greater risk of falling back into poverty were more affected by extreme temperatures,while groups at lower levels of poverty vulnerability were less affected by different extreme temperatures.Based on the above conclusions,this paper believes that targeted policies should be taken to alleviate the substantial threat of extreme weather to the economic stability of households.First,consider increasing investment in education,agricultural research and development and other public fields,strengthen rural basic education,vocational and technical training,and improve the adaptability of residents to the natural environment;Further,promote the development of rural economy by promoting the industrialization and industrial upgrading of agriculture,and establish a risk early warning mechanism to provide feasible theories,methods and countermeasures for solving the problem of relative poverty in China’s extensive rural areas in the next step,and provide experience for the vast number of developing countries with an important role in agriculture.