Research On Geological Disaster Risk Evaluation And Early Warning Model In Xindu District

Xindu District of Xingtai City is located at the eastern foot of Taihang Mountains,with intensive human engineering activities and a variety of terrain types,many common geological hazards often occur under the direct and indirect effects of various factors,posing a certain threat to the lives and property safety of local residents.In this paper,based on the detailed field survey,we have selected the most prominent influencing factors in combination with a variety of hazards on site;and found that among many factors that induce the occurrence of geological hazards,meteorological rainfall is the most direct and largest factor.Therefore,it is especially important to carry out the research of geological disaster risk investigation and evaluation and early warning model in Sindhu district.In this paper,based on the right-of-evidence method and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and based on the Arc GIS platform,we conducted a study on the evaluation and early warning of geohazard risk in Xindu District.The main contents and conclusions of this study are as follows.(1)A total of 202 geological hazard sites were found in Xindu District through detailed field work,with four types,mainly collapse and landslide.Among them,there are84 landslides and 102 landslides.(2)Risk evaluation was carried out in Xindu District,and the risk evaluation model and vulnerability evaluation model were established successively.In the risk evaluation,ten evaluation factors were selected based on the influence degree and correlation analysis of the evaluation factors,including slope,slope direction,slope type,density of hazard points,engineering geological rock group,geological structure,vegetation,water system,rainfall and human engineering activities(roads),and the geological hazard risk evaluation of Xindu District was conducted based on Arc GIS platform using the weight-of-evidence method.(3)The obtained hazard evaluation results were zoned into five classes: low hazard zone,medium-low hazard zone,medium hazard zone,medium-high hazard zone and high hazard zone.The hazard evaluation results were verified by ROC curves,and the verification results showed that the prediction accuracy of the right-of-evidence model in the geological hazard evaluation of Xindu District was good.(4)The study of vulnerability evaluation in Xindu District was conducted.Population density,road density and housing density were selected as evaluation factors for geological hazard vulnerability evaluation in Xindu District,and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was applied to derive the results of geological hazard vulnerability evaluation in Xindu District,which were classified into five classes: low vulnerability,medium-low vulnerability,medium vulnerability,medium-high vulnerability and high vulnerability.(5)Based on the empirical formula "hazard×vulnerability=risk",the evaluation result of geological disaster risk in Xindu District was obtained and divided into low risk,medium-low risk,medium risk,medium-high risk and high risk zones.(6)By analyzing the geohazard events under rainfall in Xindu District and combining three types of rainfall that cause geohazards,the types of rainfall and rainfall threshold values that cause geohazards in Xindu District were determined,and a weather warning model was established.