Economic Evaluation Of Post Earthquake Disasters In Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area

Geological disasters occur frequently and are widely distributed in China.These disasters have had a great impact on China’s production and construction,economic development and the safety of people’s lives and property.In 2017,the "8.8" Jiuzhaigou earthquake and its aftershocks caused severe damage to jiuzhaigou scenic spot,which is only 5 kilometers away from the epicenter,and caused a large number of potential disaster spots,posing a serious threat to the life safety of tourists and property safety in the scenic spot.In view of this,jiuzhaigou scenic area is selected as the research object,through the detailed investigation of geological disaster points,combined with satellite images,UAV aerial photography,jiuzhaigou scenic area geological environment data,jiuzhaigou scenic area after the earthquake disaster loss data,based on geographic information system(GIS).The risk evaluation of Jiuzhaigou scenic spot is carried out by AHP and FUZZY comprehensive evaluation method,and the narrow economic evaluation is carried out by cost-benefit accounting principle and related mathematical model.After comprehensive analysis and in-depth discussion of the risk evaluation results and narrow economic evaluation results,the final economic evaluation results are obtained.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which has strong guiding significance for scenic spots to avoid the huge risks brought by disasters and reduce the economic losses caused by disasters.The main research results are as follows:(1)Through the detailed investigation of the hidden dangers of post-earthquake disasters in jiuzhaigou scenic spot,combined with satellite images and geological environment data,it is found that there are 155 hidden dangers of post-earthquake disasters in Jiuzhaigou scenic spot,and the main disasters are collapse.(2)By analyzing the natural environmental factors and human factors of Jiuzhaigou scenic spot,select the risk assessment factors suitable for the study area,and use AHP,FUZZY and other methods to do the superposition calculation according to GIS software.The risk was divided into four levels: very low(35.12%),low(33.91%),medium(19.21%)and high risk(11.76%).(3)this paper choose the jiuzhaigou scenic spot three main ditch ditch and zharu as evaluation unit,and the important economic factors were compared,after considering,selecting the density of road,the scenic area income,population density,three indicators to establish the jiuzhaigou scenic spot vulnerability assessment system,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and GIS software,The vulnerability grade of tree-positive ditch is high(26.50%).The grade of rize Ditch vulnerability was medium(23.36%).The vulnerability of Chawa ditch was low(38.17%).The vulnerability grade of Zharu Ditch was very low(11.97%).(4)By using the multiplication model,the risk results of the study area were divided into four grades: extremely low(58.48%),low(19.09%),medium(15.31%),and high(7.12%).It was concluded that the overall risk of geological disasters in Jiuzhaigou scenic spot was relatively high,and the high risk areas were mainly distributed in the mountains along the two banks from the entrance of the scenic spot to Nuorilang Waterfall.The main disaster is collapse.(5)Through the economic evaluation of disaster prevention scheme,geological disaster economic loss evaluation and disaster prevention benefit economic evaluation,jiuzhaigou scenic spot narrow sense economic evaluation system is established,through the cost-benefit accounting principle,empirical coefficient method to build relevant mathematical model.The total project cost is estimated to be 1.22056 billion yuan,the economic loss value of the research area is 18.73036 billion yuan,disaster prevention benefit is the fourth level,the economic benefit is great,and the research area is divided into three levels for zoning management.