Research On Multi-agent Investment Decision Of Rural Rooftop Photovoltaic Project Based On Evolutionary Game

In recent years,all parts of the country are actively promoting the development of rural photovoltaic industry around the national goal of "carbon peak,carbon neutrality" and the requirements of comprehensively promoting the rural revitalization strategy,especially the investment and construction of rooftop photovoltaic projects.Because there are sufficient and widely distributed roof resources in the rural areas of our country,and the rural roof is basically idle,it is of great advantage to develop the roof photovoltaic project with the way of spontaneous use and spare electricity online in the rural areas.To promote the development of rural rooftop photovoltaic cannot be separated from the active support of all participants.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the factors affecting the investment decision of all participants and study the investment decision behavior of all participants based on the situation of different regions in order to make rooftop photovoltaic become an important starting point of rural revitalization,so as to promote the scientific development of rural photovoltaic and expand the channels for farmers to increase their income.This paper selects the rural rooftop photovoltaic project as the research object and uses evolutionary game theory to analyze the investment decision-making strategy of each participant.Firstly,this paper introduces investment decision theory,game theory and evolutionary game theory.Secondly,it analyzes the investment models and investment decision-making factors of rural rooftop photovoltaic projects.Then,based on the evolutionary game theory,an evolutionary game model of rural rooftop photovoltaic projects is constructed,and the income matrix and replication dynamic equation of the government,farmers and photovoltaic enterprises are established.Finally,the theoretical model is numerically simulated,and the decision-making strategies of each participant under different lighting resources are considered to further verify the conclusions of the theoretical analysis.It provides reference for three parties to make investment decision,and promotes the benign development of rooftop photovoltaic in rural areas of our country.The following three conclusions can be drawn from the results of the evolutionary game model.First,the government,farmers and photovoltaic enterprises will be affected by the other two participants in the decision-making process.For the government,the lower the cost of government subsidy,the faster the government tends to adopt subsidy strategy.For farmers,they tend to choose the self-construction strategy at the beginning,but eventually they will choose the lease strategy.For photovoltaic enterprises,the proportion of choosing the contract construction strategy increases rapidly and then slows down,and finally chooses the contract construction strategy.Second,the evolutionary game model constructed in this paper has two equilibrium points,namely(subsidies,leasing,construction)and(supervision,leasing,construction).Third,the three factors of the government unit electricity subsidy,photovoltaic feed-in tariff and installed capacity of the project will have different impacts on the evolution strategies of the three parties involved in different lighting resource areas.For the government,the higher the electricity subsidy,the more inclined to adopt the regulatory strategy.For farmers,the higher the photovoltaic feed-in tariff is,the more inclined they are to adopt the selfconstruction strategy.For photovoltaic enterprises,if the installed capacity of a project is too small,they will quickly choose not to undertake construction strategy,and the higher the installed capacity of a project,the more inclined to adopt the contract construction strategy.This paper uses evolutionary game theory to study the investment decision of rural roof photovoltaic project,which has important theoretical significance and practical value to promote the healthy development of rural roof photovoltaic.At the theoretical level,it further improves the relevant theoretical research on the rural photovoltaic industry,and at the application level,it further broadens the practical value of the evolutionary game theory.