| Water plays an important role in human development and is one of the most important resources for human beings.However,in recent years,the global economy has developed rapidly,the population of the world is also growing rapidly,and the limited available water resources are increasingly unable to meet the needs of the population.So there is a shortage of water resources worldwide.China is a country with abundant freshwater resources in the world,but the per capita water resources are only about 2,000 cubic meters.It is currently in a state of mild water shortage.Under suchmild water shortage conditions,due to the combined effects of climate change and social production activities,China's total water resources will gradually decrease.As the demand for water resources increases due to economic and social development,China's water supply will be more higher.In addition,the development of the economy will inevitably bring about the problem of water pollution.China's water quality is divided into five categories.Only one,two and three class can be used as drinking water sources,and four,five and five class of water can be used.In 2016,the percentage of not meeting drinking water standards is 28.8%,33.9%,32.9%,and 32.3%of freshwater resources(including rivers,lakes,reservoirs,and other surface waters)nationwide.In recent years,China has realized the seriousness of water resources,increasing investment in water resources management,and implementing a water resource management system that combines river basin management and administrative regional management.In the seven major river basins of the country,the management institutions within the basin have been established.The basin is an organic whole with water resources at its core,including economic,social and natural environments.The water bodies in the basin are related to each other and restrict each other.This requires that the economic and social development links within the basin must be realized in the overall interests of the basin,and reduce the adverse impact on the water resources environment in the basin due to economic and social development.That is to avoid unilateral pursuit of the maximization of economic and social development benefits in the basin;at the same time,we must also pay attention to the characteristics of each administrative region,and make full use of local water resources development advantages to achieve the coordination of water resources utilization in different regions.The Taihu Lake Basin can be considered as a microcosm of the contemporary water crisis.This paper takes the Taihu Lake Basin as an example to explore a reasonable decision-making method for water pollution control and rational allocation of water resources.Water pollution control in the Taihu Basin is a complex project involving the study of Taihu Lake hydrological environment,government governance decision-making,river basin economic development and current technology development.This study selected multi-scenario and multi-objective decision-making methods to solve management of water resources of Taihu Lake issues.The water resources management in the Taihu Lake Basin mainly includes water pollution control in Taihu Lake,available water distribution in Taihu Lake,and water conservancy projects such as "Yinjiang Jitai",which involve economic,water quality and water distribution issues.Therefore,when researching on water resources management in the Taihu Basin,the overall goal is divided into three small targets,economy,environment and resources.And the model of water resources management in the Taihu Basin is constructed.The water resources management model of the Taihu Basin includes the construction of the water environment model of the Taihu Basin and the multi-objective model.The water environment model of the Taihu Basin mainly includes the water quality model and the water availability measurement model.The multi-objective model includes the economy(capital cost,operating cost,loss cost),environment(total nitrogen concentration in Taihu Lake),and resources(water distribution fairness).water supply reliability).In the analysis of decision-making,this paper uses a combination of deterministic optimization and multi-scenario optimization for robust decision analysis.Deterministic optimization refers to the use of conditions determined by historical data as a future scenario and testing of the portfolio for that future condition.Associated with this standard assessment program,this paper uses a multi-objective approach that uses a range of management interventions as decision variables to target the economy,environment,and resources.Deterministic optimization is the use of historical hydrological conditions and estimated demand in 2035(ie,a single deterministic scenario in the future)as a preliminary screening scenario for investment in water management in the Taihu Basin.Then,this paper adopts the multi-scenario multiobjective optimization method,and the multi-objective model used is the same as the multi-objective model in deterministic optimization.The only difference is that multiscenario optimization is to evaluate the target value in the entire scenario set.Evaluate decisions based on all possible combinations of future external condition changes considered.Multi-objective and multi-scenario optimization is used to find solutions that work well in multiple future states,and then compare the results of the two methods.The performance of a deterministic solution is contrasted with the performance of a multi-scenario-optimized solution to assess the advantages of considering multiple future possible scenarios for decision making when making multi-objective decisions.. |
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