Study On Dynamic Game Of Bank-enterprise Supply Chain Under Government Financing Guarantee

The difficulty and high cost of financing for small and micro enterprises has always been a major problem troubling China’s economic development.In general,there is serious information asymmetry between small and micro enterprises and banks.Due to the influence of relational credit and credit rationing,pareto optimality cannot be realized in the dynamic game among the government,banks and small and micro enterprises under incomplete information.It is very difficult for the "flowing water" of bank funds to flow to small and micro enterprises,and there is a Macmillan gap in the financing of small and micro enterprises for a long time.Domestic and foreign practical experience shows that government financing guarantee can effectively alleviate this problem.Based on the analysis and summary of previous studies,this paper subdivides government financing guarantee into two modes: government full guarantee and government proportional guarantee,and makes a comparative study of three financing modes of small and micro enterprises with anarchic guarantee mode.By constructing dynamic game model and solving sub-game refined Nash equilibrium,the revenue of government,banks and small and micro enterprises under various modes are analyzed.In single phase of the government,Banks and small micro enterprise loan tripartite dynamic game,because of three kinds of mode of bank loan of probability of default probability and small micro enterprise is different,so the expectations of the tripartite benefits are also analyzed,and the numerical simulation research,more intuitive see different financing mode for the parties and the overall income effect;In the tripartite repeated dynamic game between the government,banks and small and micro enterprises with multi-period loan,based on the single tripartite game,the multi-period tripartite dynamic game model and return function are reconstructed,and the multi-period government,banks and small and micro enterprises return analysis is carried out with the aid of limit thought.Finally,the conclusion of the impact of the three modes of single-term loan and multi-term loan on the income of the government,banks and small and micro enterprises is summarized,and the policy suggestions are given to the government,banks and small and micro enterprises respectively.The results show that :(1)compared with the anarchic guarantee mode,it is easier for small and micro enterprises to reach the conditions of sub-game refined Nash equilibrium,and small and micro enterprises are easier to obtain loans,and the loan cost is greatly reduced.(2)Under the government financing guarantee mode,the default probability of small and micro enterprises is reduced,while the loan probability of banks is greatly improved.(3)Compared with the full government guarantee mode,the trigger probability of moral hazard of banks is greatly reduced,and the quality of small and micro enterprises screened by banks to enter the financing market is improved,so the financing environment of the whole small and micro enterprises is improved.(4)In the government financing guarantee mode,the reputation income of small and micro enterprises and the government’s credit incentive and disciplinary measures for dishonesty are crucial to the improvement of the overall income.(5)Among the anarchic guarantee mode,government full guarantee mode and government proportional guarantee mode,the total return of the three parties in the anarchic guarantee mode is the lowest,while the total return of the three parties in the government proportional guarantee mode is the highest.