Construction Of Risk Assessment Model For Guarantee Business Of Small,Medium And Micro Enterprises In Hunan Province

In order to fully implement the strategic positioning of Hunan’s "three high and four new",and promote the economic development of Hunan Province,the guarantee industry in Hunan Province focuses on supporting small,medium and micro enterprises and the "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" industries,and spare no effort to solve their financing problems.As a subsidiary of Hunan Financing Guarantee Group,ZX Guarantee Co.Ltd has always been positioned to help small,medium and micro enterprises and the development of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers".Guarantee companies have to bear a lot of operational risks.As a policy-oriented guarantee enterprise,how to realize the benign development of "guaranteed capital and small profits" on the basis of "not for profit",it is essential for the guarantee company to carry out risk management of the guarantee business.Judging from the current situation of the guarantee business of small,medium and micro enterprises in Hunan Province,the risk assessment of the guarantee business is largely based on the results of the account manager’s investigation during the due diligence process,and then the decision makers determine whether to guarantee the customer.This type of risk assessment method is an analysis method based on subjective analysis.Faced with the growing volume of guarantee business,this type of guarantee business risk assessment method needs to be further optimized.Guarantee business risk assessment method can be centered on business data analysis,be objective.Therefore,this thesis attempts to establish a linear risk assessment model for the guarantee business of small,medium and micro enterprises,and wants to provide help for the guarantee companies to carry out risk management.In order to study the financing guarantee risk in Hunan Province,I learned a lot of literature about financing risk management and accumulated relevant knowledge in the process of internship.From the perspective of the guarantee business,this thesis uses the actual data of the guarantee business of small,medium and micro enterprises to construct a risk assessment model for the guarantee business of small and medium enterprises according to the risk management needs of the guarantee companies.The model selected the initial 23 indicators,compares the three correlation analysis results of Spearman,Pearson and Kendall with the results produced by the grey relational analysis method,and selects the grey relational analysis results with better results.On this basis,17 indicators were selected which were finally used to construct the risk assessment model.Then the selected indicators are calculated by principal component analysis,entropy method and CRITIC method.By testing and comparing the three results,the indicators are weighted,and the results of the CRITIC method with a more reasonable weight value are compared with the weight value required by the expert scoring.Reasonably modify the weights with unreasonable gaps in combination with the actual application to ensure that the weight values are not distorted on the basis of objective science.From this,a linear evaluation model that can calculate the guarantee risk score of small,medium and micro enterprises is obtained.To test whether the prediction of the resulting model is good,the feasibility of the model is tested using test data and sampling data,respectively,where the sampling data are derived from a simple random sample of the data.The risk prediction score acquire by the model is compared with the actual venture situation,and it is found that the test has passed,and the prediction score of the model is consistent with the actual situation.Therefore,it can be taken into account that the linear assessment model of guarantee business risk constructed in this thesis is workable and has a good evaluate result.In the above linear evaluation model,the indicator with the highest weight value is the asset-liability ratio,followed by the number of patents with core competitiveness of the enterprise,and the lowest is the education level of the actual controller of the enterprise.The results of empirical analysis show that the evaluation indicators selected in this model have certain guiding significance for the evaluation of guarantee business risks of small and medium-sized enterprises in Hunan Province.And the size of the weights assigned to each indicator can also provide a good reference value for the guarantee company to carry out the risk management of the guarantee business to a certain extent,so that it can better reduce the compensation risk.In this way,it can better serve small,medium and micro enterprises,and can promote the economic development of Hunan Province and escort the realization of its "three high and four new" strategy.