Study On The Effects Of Land Use Change On Carbon Peaking And Carbon Neutrality In Jiangxi Province

With the change of global climate environment,the average surface temperature shows a trend of rapid rise,the melting of glaciers has accelerated the rise of sea level,Marine ecosystem damage,and the problem of global warming is attracting more and more attention.Climate protection,ecological environment improvement and carbon peak,carbon neutrality are the key research topics in recent years,while the control of carbon emissions has become crucial.In 2020,China first proposed: " China will increase its national independent contribution,adopt more powerful policies and measures,strive to peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by2060.”A total of 11 districts and cities in Jiangxi province were selected in this study,Carbon emissions are calculated using a combination of direct carbon absorption and indirect carbon emissions,Combined with the status of land use in 2000-2019,Referring to the 2006 IPCC National Greenhouse Gas List Guide and the major energy consumption in Jiangxi Province,To predict the scenario of future carbon emissions in Jiangxi province,using the desickei index model,CA-Markov model and STIRPAT model,The time and peak of carbon peak are studied in different scenarios,In order to provide scientific reference for the future formulation of carbon reduction policies in Jiangxi province.the results show that:(1)Direct carbon absorption in Jiangxi Province shows a gradually decreasing trend.Due to the large distribution of woodland in southern Jiangxi province,the overall carbon absorption capacity is higher than that in other areas,while the central part of Jiangxi province is weakened due to the flat terrain,the centralized distribution of construction land and the distribution of Poyang Lake and other water systems.Carbon absorption decreased year by year between 2000 and 2019,while indirect carbon dioxide emissions generated from energy consumption continued to increase.Overall carbon emissions are an upward trend.Among them,the indirect carbon dioxide emissions from Jingdezhen,Yichun,Xinyu and Pingxiang cities peaked and decreased during the study period.The overall per capita carbon emission of Jiangxi province shows a state of "urgent-slow-urgent".Cities with high per capita carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the northern part of Jiangxi Province.The carbon emission per unit GDP presents a pattern of high in the north and low in the south,etc.In Xinyu city,the carbon emission per unit GDP and per capita are both at the forefront of the province.(2)Economic development factors contribute the most to promoting carbon emissions,followed by population size factors.Energy structure and energy efficiency efficiency have an important impact on carbon emissions.With the continuous increase of the proportion of renewable energy,the impact of energy structure on carbon emissions is becoming more and more obvious.It is necessary to significantly reduce the proportion of non-renewable energy sources such as oil and natural gas,and improve energy efficiency at the same time.(3)The carbon emission of Jiangxi province and each administrative region is predicted by CA-Markov model and STIRPAT model.In the energy-saving scenario,When Jiangxi province reached its carbon peak in 2034,Jingdezhen,Pingxiang,Xinyu,Yingtan,Yichun and Fuzhou reached their carbon peak in 2019,Other cities saw carbon peaks in 2030-2039;In the baseline scenario,When Jiangxi province reached its carbon peak in 2041,In addition to Pingxiang,Xinyu,Fuzhou and Yichun cities,whose peak carbon emissions occurred before 2019,Other prefecture-level cities peaked in carbon between 2039-2049;In the extensive situation,When Jiangxi province reached its carbon peak in 2050,Except for Pingxiang City and Xinyu City,Other cities reached their carbon peak between 2044-2055,None of the three scenarios will be carbon-neutral by2060.Further forecast carbon neutrality time point,energy saving scenario in Jiangxi province to achieve carbon neutrality in 2089,the benchmark scenario in 2095,extensive mode to achieve carbon neutrality in 2099,later than the country to strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.Ganzhou was earlier than other cities,followed by Ji’an,Fuzhou and Shangrao cities with high forest coverage,while other cities were relatively late.Therefore,the future development of Jiangxi Province needs to pay attention to the utilization and protection of green ecological resources,and strive to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible.