A Study On The Temporal And Spatial Evolution Of Carbon Emission In The County Of Wu’an City

Global warming has caused a series of severe environmental problems.In order to protect our ecological environment,it is imperative to curb global warming by control-ling greenhouse gas emissions.As a developing country,China is still in the stage of rapid urban development.Both carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emis-sion are in the forefront of the world,and it has a greater responsibility for carbon re-duction.At the Paris Climate Conference,my country promised to reduce CO₂ emis-sions per unit of GDP by 60%to 65%by 2030 compared to 2005.The county,as the largest"ecological support"and"carbon compensation area",occupies 93%of my country’s land area,73%of the total population,and60%of GDP.Its carbon emissions per unit of GDP are still higher than the national average.20%,this is not only difficult to meet the county’s own carbon reduction needs,but also unable to realize the function of regional carbon compensation.In order to develop a green and low-carbon economy and promote new urbanization,we will analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in my country’s counties from the county level,formulate differenti-ated and precise emission reduction policies and targets,and extend existing carbon emissions research on a smaller scale.Taking Wu’an City as an example,the temporal and spatial evolution of county carbon emissions and its influencing factors were stud-ied,and the county carbon reduction strategy was further proposed,which provided a theoretical basis for specific emission reduction strategies.This study first constructed a county-level carbon emission accounting model with Wu’an City as an example,and combined its current economic and environmental con-ditions on the basis of this model to allocate carbon emissions in space and by sector.This paper analyzes the characteristics of the spatial variation of carbon emissions in Wu’an City from the overall county level and the township level,and focuses on the temporal and spatial changes of carbon emissions in major carbon source sectors such as industry,residents’life,public facilities,construction,agriculture,forestry,and trans-portation.Secondly,using spatial autocorrelation analysis methods,rank-scale rules and other analytical methods to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in Wu’an County.Finally,based on the analysis of the evolution of the county carbon emission ac-counting and time-space characteristics in Wu’an City,the determination of the influ-encing factors of carbon emission in Wu’an City and the carbon reduction strategy were explored.First,through the study of Tapio decoupling model,the decoupling state of carbon emissions and economic development in Wu’an City was clarified,the relation-ship between carbon emissions and economy in Wu’an City was analyzed,and the ne-cessity of carbon emission reduction in Wu’an City was determined.On this basis,using the previous carbon emission accounting data,the time series model of statistical soft-ware SPSS was used to predict the influencing factors and the county carbon emission data under the influence,and a fitting curve was generated.Furthermore,based on the STRIPAT model,the calculation method of county carbon emissions in Wu’an City was obtained,and the factors affecting the calculation of county carbon emissions in Wu’an City were screened out.Then,the framework of the main carbon emission departments,influencing factors and carbon reduction strategies in Wu’an was established,the carbon reduction strategies suitable for Wu’an City were proposed,and the scenario predictions under different carbon reduction targets were quantified,and the temporal and spatial pattern changes were characterized.It provides a theoretical basis for formulating rea-sonable and differentiated carbon emission reduction policies,improving the pertinence of county-level emission reduction policies and the operability of issuing policies.