Study On Food Demand And Availability Of Cultivated Land Resource Based On A Balanced Diet In Jiangsu Province

Cultivated land is a resource guarantee for realizing national food security and an important support for the development of the national economy.Stabilizing the balance between supply and demand of food will inevitably require sufficient cultivated land resources as the basis.China is in the stage of rapid urbanization development.In the future,the population will increase and the dietary structure will be improved.The food demand will continue to increase.At the same time,the non-agricultural use of cultivated land is still inevitable.The contradiction between the loss of cultivated land and the expansion of food demand are becoming more and more serious,which threatens the national food security to a certain extent.2020 is the ending year of China ’s 13 th Five-Year Plan and the decisive year in building China into a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.After entering a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way,the improvement of people’s lives has led to changes in the food demand structure.This has affected the changes in the level of food self-sufficiency to a certain extent,and also put forward higher requirements for the future supply and demand of food and protection of cultivated land resources.This paper takes Jiangsu Province,the main food producing area,as the research object.Based on the urban and rural residents’ food consumption data from 2000 to 2018,this paper uses spatial analysis,mathematical statistics,and cultivated land demand prediction function methods to analyze the food demand characteristics of food and non-food in Jiangsu Province,and further explores the future evolution of food demand structure under reasonable nutrition standards.On this basis,the future changes in the food self-sufficiency rate under different consumption levels are studied.Combining with the forecast of food production index,this article discusses the sub-scenario of cultivated land demand to ensure food security in Jiangsu Province.Finally,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the food consumption demand and cultivated land protection.The main results are as follows:(1)Since the 21 st century,the food output of Jiangsu Province has shown a volatility increase.In 2017,the food yield reached 35.4 million tons,which was 1.14 times of that of2000.The regional pattern of food production is extremely uneven,and there are large differences in the level of food production in different regions.Among them,the food output in southern Jiangsu has dropped significantly,some urban areas have been transformed into severe food shortage areas,and the northern Jiangsu area gradually develops towards the main food producing area.(2)From the perspective of food consumption for different purposes,the consumption of rations in Jiangsu Province has continued to decrease since 2000.By 2018,it has dropped to 9.81 million tons,accounting for only 27% of the total food demand.The total consumption of feed food and industrial food has risen steadily.The feed food increased from 7.55 million tons in 2000 to 11.77 million tons in 2018.The increase in industrial food was even greater,rising from 4.02 million tons in 2000 to 12.77 million tons in 2018.Its growth rate is more than 2 times,mainly due to the rapid development of new energy fuel ethanol projects.In contrast,seed food and wastage are relatively stable.The changes in food consumption for different purposes indicate that,China is gradually moving from an era of food and clothing to a new era of urbanization and industrialization.(3)From the perspective of reasonable nutrition goal,combined with the dietary intake standards recommended by the dietary guidelines,the Low,Medium,and High levels of per capita food demand in the future are 397.04 kg,507.33 kg,and 617.63 kg.Calculated based on the total population of 84.845 million,the total food demand of Jiangsu Province in 2030 will be 33.68-52.39 million tons.Since the 12 th Five-Year Plan,the total food demand in Jiangsu has only increased.Combined with the current situation of food demand,it is believed that the prediction results of the Medium plan can better characterize the future trend of food demand in Jiangsu Province.With changes in national dietary preferences and upgrading of industrial and agricultural structures,feed food and industrial food will continue to grow.(4)From the perspective of food self-sufficiency,since 2000,the food self-sufficiency rate in Jiangsu Province has shown a change of “a sharp decline,adjustment and recovery,and a steady decline”.Except for individual years,it is basically maintained at more than100%,which can ensure that the food is completely self-sufficient and has surplus.Taking into account the food demand for reasonable nutrition goals,the food self-sufficiency rates for the three options of Low,Medium and High in 2030 are 104.38%,81.69% and 67.1%,respectively.Among them,the self-sufficiency level of the Medium and High plans is obviously low,indicating that the food security risks are higher.(5)From the perspective of future demand for cultivated land,there is a large gap between cultivated land protection gaps at different levels of food consumption.Among the three plans of Low,Medium and High,the cultivated land resources needed to ensure complete self-sufficiency of food in 2030 are 3.92 million hectares,500.34 million hectares,and 6.0912 million hectares,respectively.Based on the current situation of cultivated land resources in Jiangsu Province,it is believed that when the future per capita food demand remains 397.04 ～ 507.33 kg,the required cultivated land resources are about 3.92 ～ 5 million hectares.Under the current situation of 4.584 million hectares cultivated land,it is more ideal and feasible to achieve complete food self-sufficiency in Jiangsu Province.