Research On Analyst Prediction Behavior And Information Disclosure Quality Of New Media Interactive Platform

In the capital market,the disclosure and transmission of information lay a solid foundation with regards to allocation of resources.In the case when the supply and demand of information do not match,investors cannot identify high-quality and inferior enterprises,the "lemon" market problem will appear,and the market mechanism will fail.In order to alleviate such information asymmetry problems,according to previous research literature,the measures taken by management are often influenced by the institutional,market and firm levels.From the institutional level,regulators urge enterprises to disclose information to the outside world through mandatory disclosure methods such as GAAP to improve the transparency of the company.However,this method often becomes a tool for some groups and organizations to safeguard their own interests.The emergence of political pressure makes the mandatory disclosure rules may not conform to the cost-benefit principle of the whole society.From the market level,matures in financial markets have led to the development of the securities analyst,auditors and other professional talent team.As an information intermediary,securities analysts compared with management has the ability to combine macro and micro level information,so as to better predict the future development of the company and provide valuable information to investors,but influenced by personal career development,income,etc,its independence is often easy to be affected.From the company perspective,when the enterprise external environment is noisy,management takes the way of voluntary disclosure to send signals to the market in order to avoid mistake valuation by the market.Our sales forecast system provides effective channels for the management,however,the management in the aspect of voluntary disclosure has great strategic choice for space.To sum up,whether the government’s mandatory legal norms,analysts and auditors of information intermediary role or the management of voluntary disclosure of information such as the preliminary results,etc.,all these information disclosure way has the common characteristic,that is,they belong to the management or the third party one-way information disclosure,lack of the direct interaction between the information producers and information demanders,and the disclosure of accounting information involves more professional terms,its readability and understandability of information requires the recipient to boost high professional ability,so the degree ofrelease information is accepted to be consideration.Combined with the feature of China’s retail investors,its cognitive biases tend to make irrational decisions,timing difference that was used to benefit of speculation and herd behavior that involves ignoring their own information to imitate the behavior of others,the certainty of profitable investment psychology and the loss of loss aversion psychological will all enlarge the serious consequences of information asymmetry.Therefore,it is particularly important to consider the quality of information disclosure from the information demand side.With the continuous development of information technology,the listed company is paying more and more attention to the development of investor relationship management.The development of new media interactive platform for this type of information not only creates a good environment for the management of listed companies,but also creates opportunities for direct interaction with investors,and provides a new channel for investors to understand the concerns of other investors so that they can optimize its own information comprehension ability.On the whole,China’s characteristic interactive platforms can be summarized as having the characteristics of interactivity,timeliness,flexibility,dissemination and pertinence.With the role of information intermediary,analysts facilitate the information screening,sharing and integration between investors and enterprises.Investors can make full use of analysts’ reports to make investment decisions.The degree of information interaction between analysts,investors and enterprises indicates,to some extent,displays the degree of transparency of enterprise information.The influence of analysts on investors’ decisions can be considered from the perspectives of their information supply and investors’ information reception.From the perspective of analyst information supply,when security analysts are influenced by personal career development,income and other factors,their earnings forecasting behavior often has a certain bias.From the perspective of investors’ information reception,their perception of investment decisions is often affected by the reputation of securities firms and analysts,but the star analysts of top securities firms are not necessarily of higher value than top securities analysts.It seems that no matter what information provided by analysts as an information intermediary,the degree of information asymmetry between the enterprise and investors may be worse,so the enterprises whether to use and how to use new media interactive platform directly to investors in order to mitigate the asymmetry is worth our study,this paper is aimed at the problems in the following parts after fully research,from the perspective of enterprise management to reply the quality in the interactive platform and study the tone of reply.Based on the above analysis,this article selects our country’s unique interactive platform that regulators support construction,namely the "interactions" of Shenzhen stock exchange and the Shanghai stock exchange "e interaction" as the research sample.Then we use the Python tool to grab key indicators such as recovery time,answer content from the listed companies of 2014-2019 in interactive platform and take advantage of "jieba" tools to make text analysis of the content of answers.Finally,this paper does the empirical research between analyst earnings forecasts behavior and information disclosure quality of listed companies in the new media interactive platform.Through data screening and cleaning,this paper draws the following conclusions: When the forecast deviation of securities analysts is larger and the degree of divergence is higher,the response time in the interactive platform is shortened,that means the timeliness is enhanced,and the listed companies will answer the questions of investors in more detail in the interactive platform,that is,the average reply length will increase;And when securities analysts’ earnings forecast is wrong,the tone of the listed company management’s reply on the interactive platform tends to correct the market expectation.The research of this paper consists of the following six parts: Chapter One,Introduction.This paper mainly introduces the background of the topic selection and expresses the purpose and content of the research.Then,specific research contents,proposed research methods and technical routes,possible innovations and shortcomings are described in view of the research problems.Chapter two,literature review.The existing domestic and foreign research on the interaction between listed companies and investors on new media platforms is sorted out,and on this basis,the paper summarizes and writes relevant literature review.The third chapter,the theoretical basis and hypothesis.According to the relevant literature of carding,by discussing the enterprise and the external environment of asymmetric information disclosure of enterprise in the interactive platform decisions impact study,combing the apply to the information asymmetry theory,investor relationship management,such as theoretical basis,in order to make the theory of path after have support,thus carries on the theoretical analysis of feasibility,and the path of its impact.The fourth chapter,research design and model building.The econometric model is set according to the theoretical analysis,and the indicators such as response timeliness,response tone and analysts’ forecasting behavior are calculated by Python and text data analysis methods.The response quality of the interactive platform is taken as the explained variable,and the analysts’ profit forecast is taken as the explanatory variable.On this basis,the existing literature is referred to build a model.The fifth chapter,empirical results and analysis.After the model is built,the regression results are obtained by means of multiple regression.Combined with the previous theoretical analysis,the data is statistically analyzed in the economic sense.The robustness test regression is used to strengthen the reliability of the research conclusions.Chapter six,conclusion and prospect.Combined with the results of empirical analysis,conclusions are given for the research issues,and on this basis,constructive suggestions are put forward for the future development of the interactive platform.