Study On The Impact Of Media Reporting On The Accuracy Of Profit Forecast

With the emergence of the Internet,people have been in the age of information explosion.From the lack of information in the past to the current flood of information.Information has a quantitative leap,but the quality has not completed a leap.The management of listed companies still master the quality of internal information.To mitigate the information asymmetry,through this internal information,management can publish profit forecasts.So,is the profit forecast issued by the management timely help or no help?This depends largely on the accuracy of earnings forecasts issued by management.It is better to leave a deficiency uncovered than to have it covered without discretion.A broad range of stakeholders have doubts about the accuracy of profit forecasts.From the perspective of the subject of prediction,contemporary behavioral finance believes that the psychological characteristics of management will affect the decision-making behavior of management.So,can the psychological characteristics of management affect the accuracy of profit forecast issued by management?Whether there are effective ways to improve the accuracy of profit forecast issued by management is the focus of this thesis.This thesis selects the data of all A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2017,By selecting relevant variables,constructing relevant models and useing statistical tools such as SPSS.This thesis empirically studies the mediating role of overconfidence in the media reporting on the accuracy of management profit forecasting.In this thesis,the previous three executive compensation/executive compensation sum to measure management overconfidence and(net profit actually attributable to the parent company-forecast attributable to the parent company net profit)/net profit actually attributed to the parent company sum to measure the deviation in the forecast of managerial earnings.Media is measured in terms of the number of negative media reports.Finally,the empirical results show that:(l)There is a significant negative correlation between media negative report and management profit forecast deviation.Media negative report will improve the accuracy of forecast issued by management.(2)There is a significant negative correlation between media negative report and management overconfidence.So,negative media reports can restrain the irrational characteristics of management overconfidence.(3)Overconfidence plays an intermediary role in the impact of negative media reports on the accuracy of management profit forecasting.So,negative media reports can affect the accuracy of earnings forecast issued by management by influencing management overconfidence.At the end of this thesis,according to the results of this thesis,the relevant suggestions are eliminated.