Health Prediction And Simulation Of Wuhan Land Use System

With the steady progress of society and economy and the rapid development of urban construction,the ecological environment and land resources are under great pressure.A good natural resource condition is an important basis for ensuring human survival,improving the development environment and boosting economic development.Therefore,how to coordinate the harmonious development of social economy and natural resources is of far-reaching significance to human production and life.The land use system is a typical socio-economic-resource complex system.Paying attention to the health of land use system and exploring harmonious and stable human land relationship are conducive to the sustainable development of society.Based on the data of land use and socio-economic development in Wuhan from2000 to 2015,this paper used the system dynamics method to build a model of land use system health including four subsystems: land,economy,population and environment.The research simulated different economic and population development scenarios by adjusting the birth rate and GDP per capita.Then the model realized the multi-scenario prediction of the health of the land use system in Wuhan in 2035.The research obtained a total of 9 scenarios.Based on the results of the multi-scenario prediction,the research used the “Pressure-State-Response”(PSR)model as the main frame and used the entropy approach to determine weight to construct a land use system health evaluation system.The situation with the highest health level was screened out through evaluation.Finally,the land use structure of the optimal situation was used as a constraint indicator of land simulation,and the cellular automata model coupled with SD model was used to perform spatial simulation of land cover changes in Wuhan in 2035.Research indicates:(1)Building the model of the land use system health in Wuhan by using the system dynamics method can accurately simulate the development of the land use system in Wuhan.(2)The fifth scenario has the highest health score which is in line with the actual development needs of Wuhan.Under this scenario,the population will continue to grow at a moderate rate,with a birth rate of about 9.6 ‰ in2035;economic development will remain at a medium level,and per capita GDP in2035 will rise to about 285000 yuan.(3)According to the development of the fifth scenario,Wuhan's construction land will spread from the central urban area to the surrounding areas in 2035,and cultivated land and ecological land will be reduced to varying degrees.(4)The fifth scenario is not only in line with the development needs of Wuhan,but also conducive to the realization of the sustainable development goals of Wuhan.The research results have certain reference significance.Four policy suggestions are put forward based on the research results to promote Wuhan to improve the health level of the land use system in the future development process.(1)Establish a green development model in which economy and environment are coordinated.(2)Improve relevant mechanisms to comprehensively promote the implementation of the two-child policy.(3)Enhance the replenishment of cultivated land and improve the balance of cultivated land occupation and replenishment policy.(4)Use land economically and intensively,and strengthen the controllability of construction land.