The Research And Simulation Of The Public Opinion Propagation Based On Cellular Automaton

With the popularization and the rapid development of the Internet, the number of the netizen in our country rose sharply, the new technology combined the interpersonal communication, organizational communication and mass communication together. The Internet effect has penetrated all kinds of aspects such as politics, economy and culture. Different from the traditional media, the network media, which is regarded as the forth media, contains not only the traditional mass media but also the characteristics of interpersonal communication. Besides, it broke the framework of traditional mode.The characteristics of network public opinion like sudden, interactivity and high uncertainty and broad impact of communication challenge the management of the network society for the government. Based on the cellular automata theory and dynamic games of incomplete information, this thesis shows the modeling and simulation process for the network public opinion information transmission. Setting the central cell as government and the peripheral cell as netizen, the author describes the information game of government and netizen in the network space, and simulates the public opinion information by Matlab. The author made the conclusion from the simulated data as follow.1.The effect of the network information transmission will be influenced by impact coefficient, which conclude authority, professional, credibility, infectious and so on. The more impact coefficient, the more influence to netizen. Only if the government improves its impact coefficient can lead the network public opinion actively. The government should express its proposal confidently and actively, manage the disharmony factors as soon as possible, and use the facts and scientific views to refute it. This action has active meaning for leading the development of network public opinion and constructing the harmony network society.2.The effect of the network information transmission will also be influenced by the influence coefficient of information receivers. These receivers are individuals with independent thoughts of their own and will absorb information selectively. The receivers will independently judge the information, and the judgment is the influence coefficient that is the key factor during the process of the information transmission game. What will impact the influence coefficient are the values, the education background, working experience of netizens and external society environment, etc. These factors will influence the attitude to network public opinion of the netizens, therefore, influence their behaviors.By analyzing the data of simulation results, the author shows that the government has to influence the impact coefficient of the netizens in the offline space in order to construct a healthy network space. Besides, the government should also enhance the education of the socialist core values to improve the educational level of citizens, using the method of constructing a fair, democratic legal society to increase the netizens' sense of identify to government and build a justice, transparent and fair society to develop the credibility of government, thus construct a harmony network space.