Financial Early Warning Model Of Risk Stock

As the platform of financial transaction,financial market has played an important role in the real economy.As an important part of financial market,stock market has the functions of financing,transferring risks.Many domestic investors are keen to invest in stocks,and some enterprises also take listing as their goal.However,the reality is that because of the unequal or untimely information in the stock market,the investors are not often aware of the risks of financial crisis in time.So,there are not many investors who can get rich profits in the stock,and many people pay a heavy price because they cannot adjust their investment strategies quickly.In order to solve the above problems,based on the stock’s financial data of listed companies,and combined with the advantages of support vector machine and logistic regression model,this paper establishes a new financial early warning model of risk stock.First of all,the ST stock(positive class of SVM)that is specially handled by CSRC is called risk stock,and the stock(negative class of SVM)that is not specially handled is called normal stock.Then,we use the training data set of risk stock and normal stock to train the separation hyperplane with the largest geometric interval,the hyperplane determined by positive class support vector and the hyperplane determined by negative class support vector.Finally,the values of these three planes mapped to logistic regression model are 0.5,0.73,0.27,respectively.The probability intervals of(0,1)are divided into(0,0.27),(0.27,0.5),(0.5,0.73)and(0.73,1).The interval(0,0.27)is called the safe zone of stock,and the financial status of stock in this zone is good.The interval(0.27,0.5)is called the yellow light area of stock,which is out of the safe area.So,investors need to pay more attention to its development trend.The interval(0.5,0.73)is called the red light area of stock,which is risky for investing,and therefore investors need to be cautious.The interval(0.73,1)is called the risk area of stock,which has been relatively large financial risk of stock.So,it is not recommended to invest unless its risk level can be greatly reduced and continues to be stable.The empirical results show that the financial early warning model of risk stock constructed in this paper has good consistency with the actual situation,which can avoid the huge losses caused to ordinary shareholders by the sudden delisting of risk stock to a certain extent,and has important reference value for promoting the healthy and stable development of the stock market.