Research On The Early Warning Model Of Financial Fraud Of Listed Companies In Our Country

Since the establishment of China's securities market,financial frauds have emerged in endlessly,hindering the healthy development of the market to some extent,and also hitting the confidence of investors.In the case of financial fraud,the regulators react slowly,the intermediary does not act,the investors suffer huge losses.Therefore,whether the simple and efficient identification of listed companies financial fraud,has become the focus of attention.Through literature research,this paper analyzes and summarizes the western and Chinese research on the motivation,means and identification model of financial fraud of listed companies.In this process,the author found that in the identification of financial fraud in China,the indicators of the fraud year are usually used,and the dynamic indicators of the fraud year and the fraud year are seldom used.Therefore,the author introduced Beneish m-score model indexes in combination with national conditions,and obtained some supplementary indexes through the research on listed companies' fraud motives and fraud means,and then combined these indexes as variables in this paper.Firstly,the author summarizes the motivation of financial fraud of four listed companies through analysis.For these four motives,listed companies need to achieve their goals through the manipulation of earnings indicators.Therefore,the author then analyzes and summarizes the methods of profit manipulation of listed companies: falsely reducing costs and expenses;Determining income without meeting the income determinationcriteria;Delayed confirmation costs;Fictitious income;Improper recognition of investment income.Then,the Beneish m-score model and its applicability are introduced.Then,the author proposed two research hypotheses to establish the model,screened the research objects of this paper through the penalty announcement of the CSRC from 2009 to 2019,finally selected the fraudulent company group and the corresponding non-fraudulent company group,and conducted empirical analysis on these companies with SPSS software and statistical knowledge.Taking each fraudulent year as a sample,this paper obtained 65 fraudulent samples and found the corresponding control samples of 65 non-fraudulent companies.On indicators of samples after an independent samples T test,found that among the indexes in the study,six indicators: sales and management cost index,accounts receivable/advocate business wu income and accounts receivable/liquid assets,other receivable/total assets,accounts payable/total operating costs,liabilities/total assets,(the operating expenses and management fees)/advocate business wu income,fraud company were significantly higher than that of the fraud.Four indicators: depreciation index,total accruals to total assets ratio,gross profit/total assets,fraudulent companies are significantly less than non-fraudulent companies.This shows that listed companies engaging in financial fraud have the following characteristics:(2)high debt and reduced short-term solvency;(3)false income and deferred expense are usually used for financial fraud,in which false income increases the proportion of receivables,especially other receivables,while deferred expense increases the proportion of receivables.Logistic backward stepwise regression method was applied to these indicators that passed the independent sample T test to obtain the financial fraud warning model composed of four indicators,which can detect the probability of financial fraud of listed companies.Finally,this paper carries out the application test of financial fraud model in practice through the case of jinya technology.This model was used to examine theannual report data of jinya technology in 2014,and the possibility of financial fraud was found to be 98.01%.It successfully predicted the financial fraud behavior of jinya technology,and the detection time was earlier than that of CSRC,which could help regulators to find suspicious companies and investors to avoid risks.In the research on the fraud warning model of listed companies in China,the author gets the following enlightenment :(1)when the securities regulatory authorities set up the listing,refinancing and delisting systems,they should introduce a richer index assessment system.(2)when judging whether a listed company has financial fraud,the use of financial statements should focus on the rationality of related transactions of listed companies.(3)regulators can establish financial fraud models to improve regulatory efficiency.(4)standardizing the company's internal control system and strengthening the construction of integrity culture can reduce financial fraud incidents.(5)intermediaries should be more diligent and responsible.(6)strengthen supervision and punishment of financial fraud.