Analysis Of The Inflow Population And The Willingness To Stay In The Southwest Border Area

The southwest border area of China includes the border areas of Tibet Autonomous Region,Yunnan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,and the border areas of Yunnan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,which are the subject of this paper,are adjacent to three countries,namely Vietnam,Laos and Myanmar,with a total border length of 5,080 km.accounting for 23.1%of China's land border,and a total of 33 border counties(cities),making it an important gateway to the southwest and a window for China to open up to the southwest and develop regional economic cooperation.With the promotion of"The Belt and Road " and the implementation of various policies,the border areas in southwest China are developing strongly and the population flow is becoming more and more active.bringing opportunities and challenges for the development of the border areas.This paper focuses on the inflow and willingness to stay of the southwest border population,which is of great practical significance to the demographic,economic and social development,border security and national unity of the border areas.This article firstly analyses the inflow situation and residence intention of the southwest border population based on the data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey,and compares and analyses them with the overall southwest and national inflow population;secondly,it analyses the different characteristics of the southwest border inflow population and the resident population based on the data from the Sixth National Census and relevant statistical yearbooks;finally,it explores,through the establishment of a multivariate logistic regression model,the Finally,by establishing a multivariate logistic regression model,the influencing factors of the long-term residence and settlement intentions of the inflowing population at the southwest border are explored,and constructive suggestions for the long-term residence and settlement of the inflowing population are proposed based on the influencing factors.The main findings of this article are as follows:First,characteristics of the inflowing population at the southwest border:(1)The inflowing population is significantly more male than female,with a sex ratio of 123.74,mostly aged 20-49,Han Chinese,married,with agricultural hukou,and with an average of 8.87 years of education.(2)The inflowing population has a low and decreasing wage income,mainly engaged in business,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,water conservancy production,and mostly renting,with the average monthly housing expenditure accounting for 15.95%of the average wage income.(3)The inflow of population is mainly within the province,54.13%are family-type inflow,and 71.17%have been inflowing for more than 3 years.Second,geographical characteristics of the inflow population at the southwest border:(1)Compared to the southwest as a whole and the whole country,the gender imbalance of the inflow population at the southwest border is serious,with fewer inflow people aged 25-39,more inflow people with agricultural households,significantly lower educational attainment and fewer inflow people in marriage.(2)Wage incomes are significantly lower and declining faster,more people are in the primary sector and housing expenditure is significantly lower.(3)Inflows are longer than in the southwest as a whole and significantly longer than nationally,with larger household sizes.Third,differences between the inflow and the resident population at the southwest border:(1)The gender ratio of the inflow is higher and significantly higher than that of the resident population.(2)The inflowing population has a lower level of education,but a higher level of education than the resident population.(3)76.71%of the resident population is engaged in primary industries,while the industrial structure of the inflowing population is relatively better.Forth,the willingness to stay and factors influencing the inflowing population at the southwest border:(1)74.85%of the inflowing population wish to continue to stay,and one third are willing to settle down;compared with the whole of Southwest China and the whole country,the inflowing population at the Southwest border is less willing to stay.(2)The main reason why the inflowing population is willing to stay and settle down is that their families are used to living in the inflowing area;the educational environment for their children is the biggest obstacle to their willingness to stay and settle down compared to the inflowing population in Southwest China as a whole and the whole country.(3)63.46%of the inflow chose to stay in the region for 3 years or more;the turnover of the inflow is stronger in the southwest border than in the southwest as a whole and the whole country.(4)Twelve of the 16 correlated factors affecting the willingness to stay in Southwest China are significantly correlated,while nine of the 13 correlated factors affecting their willingness to settle in the region are significantly correlated.