Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Population In Anhui Province And Medium- And Long-term Forecast

In recent years,the economic development and urban construction of Anhui Province have been increasing,and the regional differences are also more obvious,showing that the population of northern Anhui is larger than that of southern Anhui,and it is more dense.There are many reasons for this population distribution,including the combined effects of natural and social factors.Then,it is particularly important to comprehensively analyze the population distribution of Anhui Province and explore the characteristics of population distribution.The paper first systematically analyzes the population distribution and development characteristics of Anhui Province,and provides qualitative and quantitative analysis to corroborate it.Using the spatial regression model,generalized linear model and spatial Dubin model,through comparative analysis,it is to investigate the impact of various factors on Anhui.The influence of the total resident population of each city in the province,and then use the GM(1,1)model,the improved GM(1,1)model,the ARIMA model,and the Logistic model to predict the population trend of Anhui Province in the next three years.The predicted value of each model was used to establish a combined model using the standard deviation method.Based on the above analysis of the population distribution in Anhui Province and the prediction of the population distribution trend,the following conclusions are drawn:From the perspective of urbanization rate,the urbanization rate of various regions in Anhui Province has shown an upward trend in recent years.Although the overall urbanization rate of the province has not reached the national average level,the situation is quite optimistic.The urbanization rate of Hefei,the provincial capital,is on the rise.It has been rising all the way,from 63% in 2010 to 82.28%,which has reached the level of first-tier cities.From the perspective of gender and age,the ratio of males to females in Anhui Province has been decreasing year by year,and the ratio of males and females has gradually been balanced.However,the whole province of Anhui Province is showing a situation of aging and even aging,which will be a very big test for Anhui Province to face next.Starting from the investigation of factors affecting the total population of Anhui Province,the total population data of cities in Anhui Province from 2012 to 2020,as well as indicators such as birth rate,death rate,GDP and urbanization rate,were selected using spatial regression model,generalized linear model and The spatial Durbin model,through comparative analysis,examines the significance of the impact of indicators on the total population of each city,and analyzes from two perspectives of time and space,and concludes that except for the mortality index,other indicators have no effect on the total population.is significant,and the three indicators of spatial factors,birth rate and GDP have a positive impact on the total resident population.With the increase of these three indicators,the number of permanent residents will increase.For the prediction of the future population trend of Anhui Province,the prediction results of the four single models are combined,and the weight of each single model is calculated by the standard deviation method to obtain a combined model,and the population of Anhui Province in the next three years is predicted.The resident population in 2022 will be 60.8993 million,61.0413 million and 61.1824 million respectively.