Research On Risk Assessment Model And Prevention And Control Strategy Of Civil Aviation Apron Scheduled Inspection And Maintenance

Civil aviation of China is on the way of building a powerful civil aviation country.As a high-risk industry,the occurrence of civil aviation accidents will cause public panic and huge economic losses.The current safety situation of civil aviation in China is far better than other countries in the world.In the past few years,there have been no aviation accidents.However,with the rapid development of the civil aviation industry and the increase in number of aircraft introduced,air transport unsafe incidents are on the increase.The fundamental means to ensure civil aviation safety is to organize proactively risk prevention and control.Based on the above reasons,a comparative study on the fitting prediction of civil aviation accident symptoms and the risk management of apron regular inspection and maintenance production activities are carried out.The main research contents include:(1)Based on the civil aviation industry development data from 2009 to 2019 published by the Civil Aviation Administration of China,14 civil aviation industry development indicators including the number of accident symptoms and the number of transport aircrafts are counted.Using qualitative analysis combined with quantitative forecasting methods,gray GM(1,N)forecasting method,curve fitting forecasting method,exponential smoothing method,and combined forecasting method are used to carry out comparative research on accident symptoms fitting forecasting.The actual number of accident symptoms in 2019 is used as the test data of the fitting model prediction,and the fitting model with the highest accuracy is used to predict 2020 to 2022,the results show that the number of accident symptoms in the next three years will show a slow upward trend.(2)The accident symptoms reflects the safety status of civil aviation.The apron regular inspection and maintenance production activities that caused the accident symptoms are selected as the research object.Based on the hierarchical holographic modeling theory,the apron regular inspection and maintenance risk evaluation index system framework is prebuilt.Using risk filtering,rating and management methods,select and determine the index system structure for evaluation,including 4 major risk factors and 23 risk indicators.(3)Use the analytic network process method to determine the weights of risk indicators.Aiming at the actual situation of A Airline in Southwest China,the gray whitening weight function is used to complete the comprehensive evaluation of the system,and the comprehensive risk level status of the system is obtained.(4)In order to manage and control risks scientifically and effectively,based on the theory of system dynamics,we study 5 safety investment strategies for 4 risk factors,and dynamically simulate the changes in the safety level of apron inspection and maintenance for20 months.The safety investment of management can significantly improve the safety level of maintenance,and the increase of management investment has the most obvious effect on the improvement of the safety level of the system.