Research On Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Tianjin Based On Ecological Water Demand

In view of China's increasing attention to the ecological environment and the prominence of water shortage in restricting economic development,the study of optimal allocation of water resources considering ecological water demand has become an inevitable trend.This paper takes Tianjin as the object of study,and takes the livelihood security,sound economic development and ecological environment improvement as the research objectives.By constructing a system dynamics model for optimal allocation of water resources in Tianjin,and simulating different scenarios,the paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions based on the simulation analysis results to provide theoretical basis and policy reference for water resources management,so as to realize the efficient use of water resources and the sustainable development of Tianjin.development.The main contents and results of this paper are as follows.Firstly,the basic overview,water resources and water resources development and utilisation in Tianjin are introduced in detail,on the basis of which the ecological water demand of Tianjin is determined.Summing up the above calculation results,the ecological water demand of Tianjin in the future years at different levels is calculated,in which the ecological water demand is about 860 million cubic metres by 2025 and about 1.18 billion cubic metres by 2035.Then,the internal structure of the model is divided into four subsystems,namely,population subsystem,economic subsystem,resource subsystem and ecological environment subsystem,according to the current status of water resource development and utilization,water use structure,population and socio-economic situation in Tianjin.Parameters were estimated for each element in the flow diagram and the assigned models were tested.Finally,five scenarios were set up with the ecological water demand satisfaction rate as the main control variable,which were the status quo trend scenario with the ecological water demand satisfaction rate of 85%,the ecological water demand satisfaction rate of 90%,the ecological water demand satisfaction rate of 95%,and the ecological water demand satisfaction rate of 100%,and then simulated the different scenarios to compare and analyze the socio-economic and environmental impacts of Tianjin in 2018-2035 under different scenarios.The results show that Scenario 3,that is,the ecological water demand satisfaction rate of 90%,is the optimal scenario for optimal allocation of water resources in Tianjin,and under this scenario,Tianjin has a healthy and stable socio-economic development,and water resources can ensure a balance between supply and demand,so that water for production,life and ecology can be guaranteed.According to the results of the study,in order to ensure the sustainable development of Tianjin and the rational allocation of water resources,policy recommendations for implementing water conservation measures and increasing the centralized wastewater treatment capacity are made.