Research On The Optimization Of Industrial Structure In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On Water Resource Constraints

Water resource is an irreplaceable important resource for human survival and development.With the large-scale increase of population and rapid development of social economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,water resource has become an important factor restricting the sustainable economic and social development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Within the current carrying range of water resources,how to regulate water resources,optimize industrial structure,realize the efficient use of water resources and sustainable development of national economy has become the focus of attention.Therefore,the establishment of industrial structure optimization model of water resource constraint has practical research value.Based on the theories of industrial structure evolution,industrial structure optimization and ecological economy,this paper analyzes the status quo of industrial structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from the perspectives of industrial structure upgrading and rationalization.The evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is constructed from three criteria of water environment,water ecology and water economy,and the water resources carrying capacity levels of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are analyzed through AHP-entropy weight-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.On this basis,taking the objective function of minimum water consumption and maximum economic aggregate as well as the output value of the three industries and population as decision variables,a double-layer optimization model of the industrial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was established.Scenario prediction was conducted using time series model and linear programming model to solve the optimal interval of the decision-making variables for the 13 cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in2020.The results of model optimization are evaluated by combining qualitative and quantitative methods,and practical countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The overall trend of industrial structure change in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is that the proportion of primary and secondary industries is gradually decreasing,while the proportion of tertiary industry is increasing year by year,which conforms to the general trend of industrial structure evolution;From the Angle of provinces and cities,Beijing's high-level industrial structure rationalization and degree were superior to Tianjin and Hebei,from the point of view of the city,Xingtai highest level of the industrial structure rationalization,Hengshui the unreasonable industrial structure,industrial structure of Beijing high-grade level than other cities,other high-level industrial structure level of 12 cities.(2)Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is in critical condition,the water resources carrying capacity of cities,the water resources carrying capacity of obvious differences between the bearing capacity of water resources carrying capacity in a weak state of the Beijing,Tianjin,Shijiazhuang,Tangshan,Qinhuangdao,Handan,Xingtai,and Cangzhou water resources carrying capacity in the critical state,the rest of the city in a saturated state.(3)The results of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei two-tier planning model show that,under the constraint of water resources,the optimization trend of industrial structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is to reduce the proportion of the primary industry and the secondary industry in the national economy and increase the proportion of the tertiary industry.From the qualitative and quantitative results,the model of the inertia is obviously better than the planning of interval value and planning,to show that the model can consider Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional rapid economic development and reduce water consumption demand,the industrial structure entropy index,the gini coefficient,the city's first degree index showed that such as planning,the gap between the city reduced,closer economic ties,city level system more reasonable,more tend to collaborative integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region development.