| The sustainable use of water resources is the basis for ensuring the sustainable development of human society,the economy and the living environment.If the water resources that can be used continue to decrease,it will have an adverse impact on the development of cities.How to achieve sustainable use of water resources has always been an important issue for human beings.This paper analyzes the status quo,development trends,and influencing factors of sustainable water resources use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2004 to 2017,and discusses the characteristics of water resources in the region.Based on these issues,system dynamics theory is used to build water resource allocation models.Trying to take the current situation of water resources as the premise,looking for opportunities and ways to improve the sustainable use of water resources from a holistic perspective.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:Based on the social-economic-ecological(RSWRS)composite system,an evaluation system for sustainable use of water resources is established.The combination of rough sets and fuzzy theory is used to determine the index weights to achieve subjective and objective comprehensive empowerment.The weights are substituted into the set-pair analysis method of system induction to obtain the final evaluation result.In the process of induction and sorting,it is proposed to apply the variable fuzzy set theory S-type function to calculate the comprehensive connection degree of the traditional set-pair analysis method,and to further expand the set-pair analysis.The method achieved the highest Spearman correlation coefficient in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,which verified the feasibility of the method.Using this as an evaluation result to analyze the current situation and trend,the results show that the overall level of sustainable utilization of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is on the rise,the overall situation in Beijing is the best but the fluctuations are relatively large,and the fluctuations in Tianjin and Hebei are relatively small.And Tianjin’s situation is better than Hebei.In order to further determine the influencing factors of sustainable use of regional water resources,a set-pair index potential was used to analyze the impact factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Many indicators in Tianjin and Hebei are in quasi-isomorphic potential or strong isomorphic potential indicators,with more people and less water,and ecological water shortages are two common problems in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Based on the above problems,the system dynamics theory is used to carry out research on water resources allocation based on sustainable use of water resources.By coordinating the interrelationships between society,economy,ecology,and water resources,and combining relevant policy requirements,design variable screening and program parameter adjustments are conducted in accordance with the principles of problem orientation,sustainability,and practicality.The water supply and demand situation of the planning year(2018-2030)was simulated,and the results showed that under the continuous development of the current situation,when the guarantee rate of surface and groundwater resources is 95%,there will be water shortages in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The supply-demand ratios of resources are 0.90,0.74,and 0.71 respectively.When the guarantee rate of surface and groundwater resources is 75%and 50%,there is no shortage of water in Beijing,and Tianjin and Hebei are still in a state of high water shortage.After comparing and analyzing different schemes,it is found that the comprehensive coordination scheme is superior to other development schemes from the three dimensions of total water shortage in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,water supply-demand ratio,and sustainable use of water resources.The adjustment of industrial structure,inter-regional population,and supply and water use methods can improve the status of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. |
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