Research On The Impact Of Returning Farmland To Forest On The Sensitivity Of Farmers To Climate Change

In the late 1990 s,China aimed to reduce the impact of agricultural production on the environment by introducing the world's largest "environmental service payment" program,the Sloping Land Conversion Program(SLCP).As a reliable solution to the environmental crisis,SLCP has undoubtedly increased vegetation coverage in ecologically fragile areas,preserved water and soil,and increased forest carbon storage,all of which have greatly improved the natural ecological environment.However,under the recognized climate change,frequent extreme weather events such as droughts and floods have severely affected farmers' agricultural livelihood security.Especially for China in the developing stage,due to the rapidly developing social and economic situation and the mandatory implementation of SLCP,the livelihood behavior of farmers will undergo complex changes.Whether this change can improve the response and coping capacity of rural households that rely heavily on agricultural production to the natural environment is still questionable.This research has conducted an in-depth discussion on the response and adaptability of farmers under the pressure of specific policies(SLCP)to climate change.The purpose of this study is to study the mitigation effect of SLCP on farmers' climate change response.Based on this goal,the sensitive concepts in the field of climate change research are used for reference.In this area sensitivity refers to the extent to which the system is adversely or favourably affected by climate change-related disturbances.In this paper,firstly,combined with related research,a sensitivity evaluation system of farmers' adaptation to climate change is established,and then combined with the long-term data of rural households from 1995 to 2010 investigated by the State Forestry Administration,including five provinces in southern and northern China,the multi-period difference in difference method is used to study the impact of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity to climate change adaptation.After that,we decompose the sensitive indicators and study the time trend effect of SLCP on different indicators,and finally analyze the heterogeneity by region and income level.This study shows that the SLCP significantly reduces the sensitivity of farmers in adapting to climate change by reducing rural household's food self-sufficiency,natural dependence on income and livelihood diversity,but the effect trend differs depending on different regions and income groups.The SLCP's trend of impact on rural household shows “Rate Effect” in the North(that is,the marginal effect of the impact increases each year after the implementation of SLCP)but “Level Effect” in the South(that is,after the implementation of SLCP,as the years go by,the marginal effect of the impact only exists in the previous few years,and the effect of the impact is not obvious in the long-term).And the effect is only manifested in middle-and low-income group.Besides,the effect has rebounded in the low-income group.We also found that SLCP mainly affects the sensitivity of rural households through subsidies.There is inclusive evidence for its mechanism of emancipating non-agricultural labor force participation to affect sensitivity.This research argues that SLCP can help reduce famers' level of sensitivity to climate change.However,it remains to be seen whether farmers can fundamentally release their labor constraints to improve their ability to adapt to climate change.