| The aging of the population has put tremendous pressure on the income and expenditure of Chinese urban employee pension insurance fund.In the face of this severe situation,the state proposed the Universal Two-child Policy in 2015.Whether the implementation of this policy can improve the age structure of the population,and how the population structure affects the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban enterprise employees,has become the focus of this article.The following is the research idea of the article:in the face of many controversies about the effect of the Universal Two-child Policy,on the basis of combing the literature,describing and analyzing the demographic changes and the status quo of pension insurance revenue and expenditure,through two parts of empirical research,a comprehensive investigation is made to research the impact of the Universal Two-child Policy on the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance:(1)Population age structure analysis:using the child dependency ratio data of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2015 to establish a gray GM(1,1)model,we predict it the child dependency ratio from 2016 to 2019,compare the difference between the child dependency ratio developed in accordance with the original trend with the true value,and determine the direction of the Universal Two-child Policy on the age structure of the population.(2)Pension insurance fund gap analysis:Using static panel and systematic GMM analysis,a regression model of the child dependency ratio and policy dummy variables on the income and expenditure of the urban employee pension fund is established.Combined with the changes in the ratio of child support obtained in the population forecast analysis,we discuss the influencing factors of pension insurance revenue and expenditure from the perspectives of the birth policy itself and the changes in the population age structure.The study found that:policy dummy variables have a positive effect on pension income and expenditure,and the coefficient of influence on income is greater than expenditure,so the implementation of this policy can alleviate the current situation of increasing gaps in the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees.The implementation of the the Universal Two-child Policy has increased the child support ratio.However,due to the fact that women’s difficulties in obtaining employment after giving birth to children can contribute to the decrease of the number of pension insurance,and social resources have been tilted toward education and medical care,the increase in the child support ratio will inhibit the income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund,and has a stronger impact on income,bring disadvantage to the accumulation of pension insurance funds.From a long-term perspective,the comprehensive two-child will bring a continuous supply of labor for our country,but in the short-term,the current situation of intensified aging is difficult to change,which will cause the gap in pension insurance revenue and expenditure to show an expanding trend. |
