Population Aging Affects The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure In Shandong Province Empirical Research

Shandong Province has a large population,and its aging level is in the forefront of our country,and is rapidly deepening.In 2018,the population aged 65 and above accounted for15.04% of the total population in this province.The degree of aging has far exceeded the "deep aging" standard stipulated by the United Nations,and the future development of population structure is outstanding.At the same time,the GDP is increasing year by year,showing a good trend of economic development,but there is still a certain gap compared with other developed provinces,the level of industrial development is not high,the industrial level is not clear,and the pace of industrial structure adjustment is slow.How to grasp the new development opportunities,determine the appropriate industrial structure for the aging development of Shandong Province,and make those industries with advanced knowledge and core technology become the dominant industries,is the urgent problem in the development of Shandong Province.Based on the existed domestic and international research,combined with the actual situation of Shandong Province,based on the relevant theory of population structure affecting industrial structure upgrading,and on the basis of selecting measurement indicators,this paper uses the dynamic panel data model and spatial measurement model to carry out empirical analysis on population aging and industrial structure upgrading through stata15 software.The results show that the influence coefficients of aging on the upgrading of industrial structure obtained by different methods are significantly positive,among which the promotion of the upgrading of industrial structure is the largest;in addition,with regard to other explanatory variables,the study finds that the upgrading of GDP per capita,the size of government expenditure,the level of urbanization,human capital level and infrastructure construction level has a significant positive impact on the industrial structure upgrading,while fixed assets investment and foreign direct investment have a significant negative impact on industrial structure upgrading.For further analysis,this paper decomposes the spillover effect.Whether in the short term or in the long term,the direct and indirect spillover effects of population aging on industrial structure upgrading aresignificantly positive,and the direct spillover effect is greater than the indirect spillover effect.It shows that the aging population will not only have an impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in the region,but also promote the upgrading of industrial structure in neighboring regions to some extent.According to the above research content,the paper finally puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: improve the social security system,increase the scale of effective demand,increase the purchasing power of the elderly,so as to effectively expand the elderly consumer market,inject vitality into economic development;promote the free flow of labor,encourage childbearing,pay more attention to education,so as to improve the level of human capital and adjust the balance between supply and demand of labor resources among industries,which is conducive to the long-term stable and sustainable development of the society;adjust the mode of industrial development and turn to the way of industrial upgrading.In fact,the process of economic development is also the process of industrial adjustment and evolution.In the face of the current economic development difficulties,only by exploring the way of industrial transformation in line with the aging development can we get out of the development difficulties,turn challenges into opportunities,realize industrial upgrading and promote economic development.