The Impact Of Industrial Structure Upgrade In Beijing On The Changes In Population Size

Over the years,the excessive population size has been a major problem that plagued Beijing.The government has also adopted a series of measures to regulate the population size,such as “management population by the credentials”,“management population by the house”,“control population by the industrial structure”.But still can’t stop the expansion of Beijing’s population.From 2000 to 2015,the population size showed an upward trend year by year,and in 2015 it exceeded 21.7 million.Since 2015,the government has implemented a policy of promoting population dispersal through industrial dispersal.The population size of Beijing has undergone major changes.In 2017,the size of the resident population and the number of resident migrants both declined,and the trend continued to decline in 2018.The implementation of the industrial dispersal policy will inevitably affect the changes in the industrial structure.At present,under the industrial dissolution policy,Beijing focuses on the development of high-end industries or high-tech industries to further optimize the industrial structure.So does the change in Beijing’s population size have anything to do with the change in industrial structure? At present,the relationship between changes in industrial structure and population size has not been determined in theory.Therefore,on the basis of related theories and previous studies,this paper uses empirical analysis of the macroeconomic methods such as fixedeffect regression,differential GMM regression,and micro-methods such as disordered logistic regression to empirically analyze the impact of industrial structure upgrades on population size.Through related research,it is found that: 1.The level of industrial structure upgrade in Beijing and various functional areas has been continuously improved in recent years.In 2018,the level of industrial structure upgrade in Beijing exceeded 0.4.The upgrading level of the industrial structure of the core functional area and the urban functional expansion area of the capital is much higher than the new urban development area and ecological conservation area.2.In recent years,the population size of Beijing has increased from an increase to a decrease.The resident population and the resident migrant population have tended to shift from urban function development areas to new urban development areas.3.Through macro empirical analysis,it is found that there is an "inverted U-shape" relationship between the upgrading of industrial structure and the change in population size.The inflection point of the calculated curve is approximately0.3.Since 2012,the impact of Beijing’s industrial structure upgrade on the size of the population has been in the post-inflection stage,that is,the industrial structure upgrade has helped curb population growth.4.Through micro-empirical analysis,it is found that compared with the high-end service industry’s mobile population,the mobile population of the primary and secondary industries and the traditional service industry are more likely to leave Beijing.The level of structural upgrading will help curb population growth.