| After 40 years of high-speed economic growth in our country,the promotion of economic aggregate is no longer the only development focus,and the government and society are paying more and more attention to the transformation of economic development methods.As an important part of the development of the national economy,the upgrading of the manufacturing industry's industrial structure is undoubtedly driving the overall economic development mode to become the core.On the other hand,China is a country with a large population,and the quality level of the labor force is also generally uneven.The change in the employment situation caused by blindly advancing the adjustment of the mode of economic development may make the employment situation more severe.This article sorts out the three-dimensional influence mechanism of manufacturing upgrade and employment quantity: the output scale affects the employment absorption through employment elasticity;the manufacturing structure upgrade affects the employment quantity through the employment absorption effect of the new industry and the old industry elimination employment effect;technology Progress analyzes the impact on employment by establishing a CES function and combining labor supply and demand models.Then,use specific data and charts to demonstrate the current status of China's industrial upgrading,and use panel data from the 27 industries of the manufacturing industry to upgrade the manufacturing industry from 2008 to 2016.The models are analyzed one by one.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Although the output value of China's manufacturing industry is concentrated in the eastern region,continued expansion of output scale can still attract more employment.However,further increase in capital investment at the national level and in the eastern region will curb employment absorption,while increased capital investment in the central and western regions can also absorb employment;(2)accelerate the upgrading of the manufacturing industry and continue to shift it from low-tech industries to high-tech industries Transformation can absorb a large number of employment,but due to historical reasons,the high-tech industry in the western region is extremely scarcely distributed,so the western region still needs to vigorously develop low-tech industries to absorb employment.At the same time,it is necessary to control the speed of transformation from low-tech industries to high-tech industries.If the speed of structural changes is too fast,it will cause a lot of unemployment;(3)Intensify technology research and development and absorb more research and development personnel.The technological upgrading of each industry can further absorb the employment population.Based on the above conclusions,put forward related policy recommendations.The author believes that China needs to vigorously develop high-tech industries,but it is necessary to formulate detailed policies to control the speed of development in order to prevent the risk of mass unemployment.We must maintain a stable situation in China where low-tech industries absorb large amounts of employment at the same time.At the same time,we must pay attention to providing policy support to SMEs in these industries. |
