The Impact Of Population Age Structure On Real Estates Price

The real estate industry is a pillar industry of our country,playing a vital role in the development of economy.Since 1998,with the policy of cancelling the welfare housing distribution and marketizing commercial housing,the real estate market in our country develops particularly fast.Especially in recent years,under the pressure of rigid demand and investment,in the real estate market,housing prices rises rapidly and fluctuates drastically,and as a result,the rigid housing needs of the people were affected."Persons",who are residential users and demanders,carry substantial weight on housing prices.That is to say,no person,no demand about house.While person has different house demand in various life period,which plays a various role in house price.In recent years,?demographic dividend?,which represents the proportion of work-aged people is the most in population age structure,carries substantial weight in economic development,and also,stimulates the house price.Under the situation that "demographic dividend" gradually disappear,the two-child policy promotes,aging society comes,population age structure in our country may change.In terms of the change of population age structure,whether the house price is to go up or to drop and the government should follow market mechanism---allow the volatility,or introduce a more severe macroeconomic regulation and control policy,there is different voice in academics.Reading related article from foreign and domestic part and conclude the study focus of this article.And then this article will take population dependency ratio data,which represent population age structure,of 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions from 2004-2014,with the control variables of per capita disposable income,CPI,actual sale squares,absolute population to demonstrates the influence on the house price in different provinces using panel data.And deeper,using classification method of administrative region of Chinese health statistics yearbook,divide the provinces in our country into three districts: east,middle and west regions.Explore the impact of the population age structure in east,middle and west regions on house prices.In this paper,It was found that total dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio are on an inverse relationship towards house price,while young dependency ratio is not significant to house price.On the further study,the author found that the eastern region real estate price is most sensitive to the change of the dependency ratio,no matter total dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio or young dependency ratio.Combining with the existing study,predict the change of population age structure till the middle of this century under the "two-child" policy,and then according to the empirical research of this paper,discuss the house price in the future based on population factors.Finally,this article will put forward the implementation of more positive conversion of population policy and reasonable suggestions to face the coming aging society.