Research On The Evolution And Driving Factors Of The Population Spatial Pattern In Myanmar

Population is the main body of all social and economic phenomena.Population elements are widely involved in economic,social,resource,and environmental systems.Any socio-economic issues cannot be separated from the exploration of the regional population.The study of population spatial pattern can comprehensively reflect the situation of a region’s economy,society,city,resources and environment,and its driving factors are of great guiding significance for understanding the law of population distribution,deep understanding of the relationship between man and land,and predicting the future trend of population distribution.It can be used as a population The scientific basis for forecasting and population control.The construction of the ChinaMyanmar Economic Corridor is an important part of China’s “One Belt,One Road”initiative.As an important participant in the construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor,Myanmar has become a key variable for the steady and long-term development of the “Belt and Road” and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.The strategic position and research value are extremely important,making it a hot spot in Southeast Asian political and economic research.Therefore,under the background that the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries continue to deepen and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor has entered the actual implementation stage,Myanmar’s domestic political situation has undergone major changes,and there is an urgent need to strengthen a deeper understanding of Myanmar’s national conditions and quickly understand the changes in Myanmar’s population pattern.Features,driving factors,and future trends have important research significance.Based on Myanmar census data,global population and water resources distribution data,and Myanmar Statistical Yearbook socio-economic data,this paper identifies the characteristics of the spatial pattern of Myanmar’s population from the distribution of the population,population density,and urbanization process in Myanmar,and uses population density.Methods such as atlas,spatial correlation analysis,offsetsharing analysis,and population center shift have explored the evolution of the spatial pattern of Myanmar’s population since 1960.Based on the 2005-2017 panel data of the population,socio-economic,and natural environment of Myanmar’s provinces(states),principal component analysis and spatial econometric models are used to explore the influencing factors of the country’s population distribution,and suggestions for population spatial optimization are proposed.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The population distribution of Myanmar has significant spatial differences,forming a “multi-core” population distribution pattern centered on economic,political,and cultural centers.The population clusters are located in Yangon,Mandalay,and Naypyitaw Region.From 1973 to 2014,the population of Myanmar increased rapidly,and the population of Myanmar had a large gap between provinces(states).Due to the influence and restriction of socio-economic and natural factors,Myanmar’s highly populated areas and sparsely populated areas coexisted.The inter-regional population density of Myanmar presents a significant spatial characteristic of "high in the middle,low in the east and west,high in the south and low in the north".At present,the overall urbanization level of Myanmar is still in its infancy.The province with the highest urbanization rate is Yangon Province at 70%,and most of the other provinces have urbanization rates between 20% and 40%.(2)The population agglomeration characteristics of Myanmar have gradually strengthened in the past 60 years.The spatial global autocorrelation of Myanmar’s population has gradually strengthened,and the local spatial agglomeration characteristics have not changed significantly.The "high-high" type areas are still mainly distributed around the population core areas.The population center of Myanmar continues to shift steadily to the south,indicating that population growth is shifting in the north-south space.The population growth rate in southern Myanmar is significantly higher than that in the northern region.According to the migration-sharing model,the population inflow areas are mainly Yangon,Mandalay,Naypyidaw,etc.;the population diffusion areas are mainly Ayeyarwady,Bago,and Magway provinces;population inflow areas and spread The land is mainly concentrated in the "provinces" where the Burmese live in concentrated communities,while population migration in areas where ethnic minorities live is relatively inactive.(3)The Spatial Dubin Model(SDM)reveals that the factors affecting the population distribution of Myanmar not only come from the socio-economic development and natural environmental characteristics of the region,but also depend on the socio-economic development and natural environmental characteristics of other regions.According to the spatial Dubin model,Myanmar’s social public services have a significant positive direct effect on population distribution,and the improvement of social public services promotes the spatial agglomeration of the local population;Myanmar’s natural environment has significant positive and negative direct effects on population distribution.The improvement of the natural environment attracts the population from neighboring provinces to enter the province;the urban development and employment quality of Myanmar have significant positive direct effects and positive spatial spillover effects on the population distribution.The improvement of urban development and employment quality promotes the population in the province and Agglomeration in neighboring provinces;Myanmar political conflict events have a significant negative spatial spillover effect on population distribution,and Myanmar political conflict events have led to the evacuation of the population from the conflict area to the domain space.Other factors in Myanmar that could not be quantified into the econometric model,such as domestic policies,ethnic minority issues,and infrastructure construction,have also had a significant impact on the changes in Myanmar’s population distribution pattern.