| China is the largest developing country in the world,and the United States is the most representative developed country in the world.The relationship between China and the United States is of great significance.In the new century,the trend towards multi-polarity has become more pronounced.The world welcomes a peaceful and rising China and calls for a healthy and stable China-US relationship.The normalization of China-US relations starts from the resumption of high-level political exchanges,and the all-round development and progress of China-US relations is also promoted by high-level political exchanges.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the high-level political exchanges between China and the United States and explore its influencing factors to enhance the essence and level of China-US relations.As a classical method of quantitative analysis,multiple regression analysis can explore the correlation between explained variables and explanatory variables,and make prediction and judgment on the future development direction.This study combines quantitative calculation and qualitative analysis,and jointly introduces international relations research to explore the factors affecting the high-level political exchanges between China and the United States,so as to provide a new perspective for the development of China-US relations.Firstly,this study makes clear the definition of the concept,the scope of high-level political exchanges,the forms of implementation and the fields involved,and summarizes the impact of the concept on state-to-state relations by comparing it with the concept of summit diplomacy.After the elaboration of the theoretical basis,this study makes a textual analysis of the chapters of sino-american relations in the yearbook of China’s foreign affairs during the presidencies of George w.bush and barack Obama,mainly summarizes the level and level of high-level political exchanges,and determines the establishment direction of the regression model by word frequency ordering with Python sentences.Taking this as a guide,the author successively put forward research hypothesis,established related indexes of explained variables,explanatory variables and independent variables,and collected data to establish variable library.Then,the multiple regression model is used to carry out regression analysis on the data.In the regression process,the collinearity influence is gradually eliminated and irrelevant variables are eliminated,and the research conclusion is drawn.The regression analysis results show that there is a significant positive correlation between China-US trade relations and high-level political exchanges,while the relationship between the United States and Taiwan does not have a significant impact on the high-level political exchanges between China and the United States.In addition,there is a negative correlation between THE direct investment of the United States in China and high-level political exchanges.Finally,the formation mechanism is interpreted according to the results of multiple regression analysis,and the feasible path to improve the high-level political exchanges between China and the United States is proposed in the unification of history and reality: China needs to take a strategic look at its trade relations,look at the Taiwan question from an overall perspective,attach importance to the influence of human rights and religion issues on Sino-us relations and the ideological conflicts reflected therein,strengthen the three-level initiative system that is driven by heads of state,promoted by foreign ministers and coordinated by ministers.The prediction function of regression model is used to predict the development direction of high-level political exchanges between China and the United States: Trade between China and the United States will develop further,China will be more proactive in dealing with the Taiwan question,maritime issues between China and the United States will come to the fore,competition between China and the US will intensify gradually.This study provides a reference for policy making from the perspective of combining quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis and the intersection of statistics and international relations. |
