Research On The Allocation Of Elderly Service Facilities Based On The Prediction Of The Spatial Distribution Of Guangzhou’s Old Population By 2030

As the degree of aging continues to deepen,people’s attention to the issue of aging also goes from the surface to the inside,from shallow to deep,and the topic of "whether the impact of aging on social and economic development negative or not " no longer arouses endlessly controversy but led to consensus.Scholars have gradually focused their attention on in-depth discussions—concern about the aging population group itself and its needs,and digging the new requirements with the group’s expand to social development,as well as its social feedback and response mechanisms.Among them,regional aging differences have become a valuable research topic in this field.This paper takes the spatial distribution of the elderly population as a research carrier,compares the development trends of the number,proportion,density and other characteristics of the elderly population in various regions of Guangzhou,cuts in from the perspective of the configuration of elderly service facilities,and introduces scientific models between the two for verification.The purpose is to first detect whether the existing configuration of old-age service facilities can meet the needs of the current and future development of the elderly population in Guangzhou,and second,to explore possible solutions to balance the differences in the configuration of old-age service facilities between regions,in order to provides the policy basis for the government so that it can response to aging issues and make adjustments in advance.This article first reviewed the literature on the spatial distribution of the aging population,population prediction and the configuration of elderly care facilities,and then entered the population prediction section.Firstly,the “Six Census” data of Guangzhou City were processed for mortality correction,and a simple life table was constructed accordingly,and then different parameters were set to obtain two kinds of high and low population prediction schemes,which were simulated by PADIS software.Then retrospectively verify the prediction results and adopt the results of the high plan.The second part is the spatio-temporal analysis of the elderly population.First,the population forecast data is processed into the streets’ degree,the purpose is to obtain the spatial distribution of the detailed elderly population of Guangzhou in 2030.And then combined it with the "Five Census" and "Six Census" data,use three indicators : the number of the elderly population,the aging rate and the density of the elderly population to observe the overall changes in the spatial distribution of the elderly population in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2030 and summarize its development laws.The third part is the matching analysis of the aging population density and the elderly service facilities.The objective status quo lies in describing the distribution of existing pension service facilities in Guangzhou and comparing the differences in the number,type,and scale of the allocation of pension service facilities in each district of Guangzhou.Finally,Geo Da software Multivariate LISA tool was used to construct a spatial autocorrelation model to estimate the spatial matching relationship between the existing pension service facilities in Guangzhou and the predicted population density in 2030.The main results obtained through prediction and simulation are as follows:(1)By 2030,the top three districts with the largest number of permanent residents aged 65 and over in Guangzhou are Haizhu District,Baiyun District and Yuexiu District;considering the age structure of the population,Yuexiu District and Liwan District will be the areas with the highest aging rate,followed by Haizhu District and Conghua District,Zengcheng District and Nansha Districts in the outer suburbs;considering the regional area factors,the aging population density of Liwan District,Yuexiu District and Haizhu District in the central old urban area will rank in the top three.Xintang Town in Huadu District and Xinhua Street in Zengcheng District may become the largest streets/communities for the elderly population.The emergence of super-large elderly population communities will bring unprecedented pressure to local elderly care services.(2)The existing pension service facilities in Guangzhou are adequately configured,but the regional development is more uneven.The per capita pension bed is about 45 beds per 1,000 senior citizens.The old folks’ home,nursing homes and senior citizens’ shelter are the most supportive institutions,mostly private capital,and the development of small and medium-sized pension service facilities is superior to large-scale pension service facilities.(3)To deal with the aging situation in 2030 with the existing resources of old-age service facilities,the problems that may be faced by various districts of Guangzhou are: Yuexiu District,Liwan District,Haizhu District,Tianhe District,Baiyun District will have not enough old-age service facilities.The configuration is difficult to meet the objective situation of the gradual concentration of the elderly population.Huadu District,Huangpu District,Zengcheng District,Conghua District and the northern part of Baiyun District are completely opposite,showing that the concentration of elderly service facilities exceeds the density of the elderly population.The situation in Nansha District is better,and the agglomeration rate of the two is more consistent.The innovations of this article are:(1)Comprehensively analyze the development and changes of the aging population in Guangzhou from the two dimensions of time and space,and grasp the differences in the regional distribution of aging in the future.(2)The spatial autocorrelation model was used to measure the uneven distribution of the elderly care service facilities in Guangzhou,and an attempt was made to point out the gap in the resource of elderly care services at the street level.