Scenario Construction And Application Toward Major Epidemic Outbreak

The frequent occurrence of major epidemic outbreak represented by the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has brought huge governance challenges to public managers.Predicting the possible changes of major epidemic outbreaks and their impact on the economy and society is an important goal jointly pursued by emergency management experts and the public health field.The traditional "prediction-response" emergency decision-making model has been unable to meet the emergency needs of major epidemic outbreak.The emergency decision-making model based on "scenarioresponse" has been proposed,and has gradually become the basic paradigm for effectively responding to unconventional emergencies.Therefore,this study analyzes major epidemic outbreak from a scenario perspective.The main research work includes:First,sort out the literature on sudden infectious disease events,scenarios,scenario construction,scenario evolution,etc.,build a research framework for scenario construction and application of major epidemic outbreak,and clarify relevant theories,research processes,research methods and expected research.result.Secondly,based on the literature research,the scenarios of major epidemic outbreak are extracted.By using the three-level coding method of Grounded Theory to analyze the collected case data of major epidemic outbreaks,119 categories,25 main categories,and 3 core categories are identified,and the scenario element structure of major epidemic outbreak is established.On this basis,the Fault Tree Analysis method is used to sort out the scenario logic of major epidemic outbreak,and emergency activities are used as the key driving factor to construct two exploratory scenarios for the evolution of major epidemic outbreak to the best and worst directions.Thirdly,on the basis of the constructed exploratory scenario,construct a Bayesian network model for the evolution of major epidemic outbreak,and by changing the state of key nodes to embed hard evidence,the impact of these key nodes on the development direction of major infectious disease emergencies is judged.Finally,on the basis of simulation deduction,the key nodes in the prevention and control of major epidemic outbreak are verified,and the management implications of the research findings are discussed.