Timed Influence Nets Based On Evaluation And Adjustment Of Infectious Disease Emergency Scenario

Infectious disease of emergencies has always been an enemy of human health. Humans also have been trying to fight infectious diseases. With the rapid economic development, ecological environment deteriorate quickly, the increasingly of people movement, making more and more diverse styles of infectious diseases, so prevention and control more and more difficult. Since 2002 to 2003, the SARS outbreak brought a painful lesson to our country, our understanding of prevention and control the infectious disease of emergencies has been significant progress, unprecedented degree of attention. The first of prevention and control of infection is to develop contingency scenario, and evaluate it, then carry out their implementation. The process of evaluation the program needs to support describe the causality from scenario to effect and quantitative measure of this relationship. Timed influence nets as a modeling tool to description of the dynamic causality, its description and parameters is simple. In this paper, we take the prevention and control of infectious diseases as the background, we focus on formulate and evaluate the contingency scenario and revise the scenario when implementation of it there some news appearing, the three key issues of the prevention and control of infectious disease. Proposed the establishment methods of formulate and evaluate and revise the contingency scenarios of infectious diseases based on influence nets. Specific studies are as follows:(1) From the needs of quantitative evaluation the emergency scenario, determine the basic steps of establish an evaluation model, and explicit the importance of hierarchy analysis and construct model. The process of prevention and control of infectious disease was stratified analysis detailed, and take the timed influence nets as a basic tool, based on it, make a deeply analysis of the inclusion causality about intergovernmental action and the evaluate effectiveness need evaluate, constructed a fitness prevention and control model to government making decision.(2) From the reality, confirm the essential requirements of the emergency scenario-making process, and given in a series of described rules about actions in emergency prevention and control, and provides a set of criteria to evaluation the results of infectious disease emergency program evaluation which established based on timed influence nets.(3) Focus the process of organization and implementation of contingency scenario needs to be revised in real time situation, combined with dynamic Bayesian network can be relatively simple features of fusion the new information, proposed to convert the timed influence nets to dynamic Bayesian network to complement. And according to the features of emergency action about infectious disease in timed influence nets is not fully discrete, gives practical conversion algorithm.(4) Give a case to verify the effectiveness of the established contingency scenario evaluation model and designed experiments to compared and verify the action rules of emergency scenario given in the text are. Finally, designed experimental applied to the information fusion method presented in this paper to verify their actual role in the prevention and control scenario revision.In summary, based on timed influence nets the paper proposed a solution to the whole process of prevention and control of infectious disease from formulate to revise. The study can help recognize the causality about the prevention and control effect and actions, and their impact. Provide quantitative reference to decision-makers in emergency program development, evaluation and adjustment process.