The Trend Of Hepatitis B Epidemic In China And The Application Of ARIMA Model In Prediction Of Monthly Incidence Amount In Different Populations

The purpose of this paper is to study the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in China by descriptive analysis of the basic situation of hepatitis B cases reported in China from 2009 to 2017.At the same time,we set up autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict the number of hepatitis B cases in different age groups and different gender groups in China.This will provide theoretical basis and valuable reference for the prevention and control of hepatitis B epidemic in China and the different intervention plans formulated by the health sector for different groups of people.This study collects and collates the basic information data of hepatitis B cases reported by the National Population and Health Science Data Sharing Platform from 2009 to 2017,and uses descriptive epidemiological method to analyze the overall incidence trend of hepatitis B in China,as well as the distribution characteristics among time,region and population.The data are collated,analyzed and plotted by using EXCEL 2016 software.According to the incidence of hepatitis B in China in the past 2009～2017 years,we used SPSS 25 software to set up ARIMA model according to different gender(male,female)and age(eight age groups).Bayesian information criterion(BIC)was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the best fitting model was used to predict the number of hepatitis B incidence in each group for 2018～2019 years.From 2009 to 2017,9197721 cases of hepatitis B were reported in China,and 4792 cases died of the disease.During the study period,the time distribution of annual incidence of hepatitis B in China showed a downward trend and then an upward trend,reaching the lowest value of 934 215 cases in 2015,and then rising year by year.In 2017,the incidence of hepatitis B broke through 1 million again,reaching 100 1952 cases.Distribution of the incidence of hepatitis B is very unbalanced,Guangdong Province ranks first with 1400212 cases,followed by Henan Province,with a total of 1069597 cases.In terms of incidence,northwest China is the heavily affected area of hepatitis B in China.Among them,Qinghai Province has the highest incidence in China,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ranks second,and the average annual incidence was 234 cases/100,000,and 191 cases/100,000,respectively.During the study period,the number of male patients was significantly higher than that of female patients,and the gender ratio of male to female showed a trend of decreasing first and then rising.Most cases of hepatitis B occurred between the ages of 20 and 49 in China,and more than half of the total population were infected by farmers.The number of people who are engaged in household chores and unemployed or business services is on the rise.The incidence of other people has declined or remained stable.Based on the data of hepatitis B incidence in China reported by the National Population and Health Science Data Sharing Platform over the past 2009～2017 years,the optimal ARIMA model set up in groups according to the gender and age of the affected population met the expected requirements.The model residuals of each group met the requirements of white noise test.The models established in each group could be used for short-term prediction of the number of hepatitis B in different populations in China.Therefore,ARIMA model is reliable and accurate,and can be used to predict the incidence of hepatitis B in all age groups in China.Between 2009 and 2017,the number of males and females reported in China was 1.718:1.The age group of the affected population was mostly concentrated in 20 to 49 years old,accounting for 63.2%of the total affected population.More than half of the occupational population were farmers.The proportion of children(Nursery children,Scattered children)decreased year by year,among which the number of children in kindergartens was the most obvious.The ARIMA model can effectively predict the number of hepatitis B in different gender and age groups in China.The forecasting results show that the monthly incidence trend of men and women in the same age group in China is basically the same.The forecasting results show that the incidence of people under 30 years of age continues to decline in 2018-2019,while the incidence of people aged 30-39 and over 50 years of age has an upward trend,and the incidence of people aged 40-49 remains stable.The ARIMA model can provide scientific theoretical support for the prevention and control of hepatitis B in China.Our government and health departments should formulate publicity,education and prevention strategies according to their gender and age,so as to better control the spread of hepatitis B epidemic in China.